Prominent cryptocurrency analyst Michael van de Poppe has warned that most altcoins are unlikely to survive long term, even as anticipation builds for a possible “altseason.”
According to Poppe, the upcoming collapse will be driven by the cryptocurrency market moving away from the broad-based altseason rallies seen in previous cycles, he said in an X post on May 16.
The analyst stressed that only a small fraction of tokens currently in circulation have genuine utility or sustainable economic value, arguing that many projects were created mainly to benefit founders, venture capital firms, or market makers rather than build meaningful blockchain ecosystems.
He noted that the crypto market is becoming increasingly selective, with investors focusing more on projects that demonstrate real-world use cases, ecosystem growth, and value accrual.
In his view, only about 1% of existing altcoins have the fundamentals needed to remain relevant over time.
At the same time, Poppe predicted that the traditional altseason, where most smaller cryptocurrencies rally simultaneously, may never return in the same form.
Instead, he expects capital to concentrate around a smaller group of stronger projects tied to innovative blockchain ecosystems or dominant market narratives.
Bitcoin maintains grip on crypto market
His remarks come as the broader crypto market remains firmly under Bitcoin’s (BTC) control. As of May 18, the Altcoin Season Index stood at 24, well below the 75 level typically associated with a full altcoin season, indicating that only a limited number of top cryptocurrencies have outperformed Bitcoin over the past 90 days.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin dominance has remained near 60%, supported by continued institutional inflows through exchange-traded funds and growing preference for the asset as a digital store of value amid cautious market sentiment.
Although the Altcoin Season Index has fluctuated in the low-to-mid 30s in recent weeks, analysts say the market has yet to show convincing signs of a broad rotation into altcoins.
Observers also note that the current cycle differs significantly from the 2017 and 2021 bull runs.
Instead of widespread rallies across nearly all digital assets, capital has largely concentrated in established large-cap altcoins and sectors tied to strong narratives such as artificial intelligence and decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN).
Despite the subdued environment, some long-term analysts still see the possibility of an altcoin rotation later in 2026 or into 2027 if Bitcoin stabilizes and its dominance weakens.
However, many caution that the market has matured considerably, with thousands of smaller tokens now competing for relevance in an increasingly selective environment.
Interestingly, Poppe acknowledged that speculative momentum could still emerge later in the current cycle, potentially near its final phase in late 2027 or 2028.
