Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) stock faces a volatile second half of October, with prediction market traders weighing the chipmaker’s potential to extend its artificial intelligence (AI)-driven rally.
Data from Polymarket shows traders assigning a strong probability to Nvidia reaching higher price levels by October 31, although the odds decline for more ambitious targets.
Specifically, traders assign an 87% probability to Nvidia stock reaching $232 by October 31, 2026. The odds of touching $240 stand at 50%, while the probability of hitting $248 falls to 25%.
More ambitious price targets attract significantly lower odds. To this end, traders assign Nvidia an 11% probability of reaching $256, 3% for $264, and 2% for $272.
On the downside, the market assigns a 72% probability to NVDA touching $224, while the odds of reaching $216 stand at 38%. The probability of falling to $208 is 18%.
These figures represent the likelihood of Nvidia touching specific price levels during the period, not its expected closing price on October 31. The probabilities are also not mutually exclusive, as the stock could reach several of these levels during the same month.
Nvidia stock fundamentals
The prediction market outlook comes as Nvidia faces growing competition from technology companies developing their own AI chips.
For instance, Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) has introduced its Maia 300 processor for inference workloads, claiming it can deliver 40% more tokens per megawatt than leading GPU-based systems.
Meanwhile, Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) CEO Hock Tan warned that financing the expansion of AI infrastructure could become a constraint.
Despite these risks, Nvidia reported $96.2 billion in second-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue, up 106% year over year, while data center revenue surged 117% to $89 billion.
The company forecast third-quarter revenue of $108 billion, plus or minus 2%, excluding data center compute revenue from China.
Nvidia is also expanding its AI infrastructure ecosystem. On October 12, the company and Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) announced a high-density optical networking design to scale AI factories.
The following day, Nvidia committed $250 million over five years to advance agentic AI safety and security research in the UK, according to its newsroom.
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