Prediction market traders are increasingly betting that XRP will finish August below $1.20, aligning with the asset’s recent price consolidation just above the $1 mark.
In this regard, traders on Polymarket assigned a 56% probability that XRP will trade below $1 by August 31, 2026. Meanwhile, the next most likely outcome is XRP finishing above $1.20, which carries a 32% chance.
The probability of XRP ending the month above $1.40 is 4%, while the chances of a move above $1.80 are just 2%. Additionally, traders assigned only a 1% probability to XRP reaching levels above $2, including targets of $2.20, $2.40, $2.60, $2.80, and $3.
The market, which has generated more than $82,500 in trading volume, suggests expectations remain tilted toward further downside despite a range of higher-price outcomes remaining on the board.
Overall, the prediction market points to continued weakness in the cryptocurrency through August. While traders still see a realistic chance of the token finishing above $1.20, expectations for a stronger rally remain limited.
Notably, bearish sentiment has strengthened, with the probability of XRP exceeding $1.40 falling 46% and the odds of a sub-$1 close rising 6%. Based on current pricing, traders largely expect XRP to end the month between $1 and $1.20.
XRP price fundamentals
This cautious outlook comes as investors continue to monitor U.S. regulatory developments. For instance, during SBI Holdings’ Q1 FY2027 earnings presentation, Director Yasuo Nishikawa said XRP’s weak performance may be tied to the market awaiting greater clarity on the proposed U.S. CLARITY Act, with investors holding back until the legislation’s future becomes clearer.
Even so, institutional demand has remained strong. XRP-focused ETFs recorded $15 million in net inflows over the latest week, outperforming Bitcoin and Solana funds, while assets held by U.S. spot XRP ETFs have risen to about $1 billion.
Meanwhile, the XRP Ledger added nearly 490,000 new accounts in the first half of 2026, lifting active accounts to a record of more than 8.4 million.
Developers are also preparing the XRPL v3.3.0 upgrade, which will introduce institutional-focused features including confidential transactions, sponsored fees, and batch transaction processing.
These developments stand in contrast to XRP’s recent market performance, suggesting that while traders remain cautious in the short term, institutional adoption and network activity continue to strengthen around the cryptocurrency.
By press time, XRP was trading at $1.07, down about 1% over the past 24 hours. Furthermore, the asset was also in the red on the weekly timeframe, having declined nearly 3.5%.
