While XRP is experiencing a sharp decline and risks losing the key $1 support level, prediction market traders are signaling that the cryptocurrency is most likely to finish June near $1.40.
The market, which allows participants to wager on where XRP will trade at the end of June, currently assigns the highest probability to the cryptocurrency closing at $1.40, with a 34% chance, according to Polymarket data as of June 3.
The next most likely outcome is XRP ending the month at $1, carrying a 15% probability. Meanwhile, traders assign a 7% chance to XRP reaching $1.60 by month-end.
Probabilities decline significantly beyond that level. In this line, Polymarket participants assign a 3% probability to XRP finishing at $1.80, while the likelihood of the token reaching $2, $2.20, $2.40, $2.60, or $2.80 ranges from 1% to 3%.
The odds of XRP ending June at $3 are below 1%, suggesting traders view such a rally as unlikely.
On the downside, the market assigns a 4% probability to XRP closing at $0.80, a 2% chance of ending at $0.60, and 1% or less for a decline toward $0.40 or $0.20.
The odds distribution indicates traders expect XRP to remain near current levels through the end of June.
With a 34% probability, the $1.40 price target is viewed as the most likely outcome, while expectations for a move above $2 remain limited.
XRP price fundamentals
The outlook comes as XRP extends its losses in line with broader cryptocurrency market weakness.
Notably, the decline has occurred despite several positive developments for the Ripple ecosystem. For instance, on the institutional front, Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin expanded into Turkey through partnerships with BiLira, Bitexen, and Bitlo.
The move is aimed at supporting inflation hedging and cross-border payments in a high-inflation economy, helping drive RLUSD’s market capitalization above $1.7 billion.
At the same time, U.S. spot XRP ETFs continued attracting capital. The products recorded a 2026-high weekly inflow of $60.5 million in mid-May and a monthly record of $118.29 million in May, pushing cumulative inflows above $1.4 billion since their late-2025 launch.
Despite these catalysts, XRP remains well below its 2025 highs, weighed down by broader risk-off sentiment and Bitcoin’s weakness.
Analysts note that ETF inflows have helped provide price support but have yet to reverse the broader market trend.
At press time, XRP was trading at $1.24, down 1.6% over the last 24 hours and 6.6% on the weekly timeframe.
