Although XRP has made a modest upward move in early May, cryptocurrency prediction markets are maintaining a cautious outlook on the digital asset for the rest of the month.
In this regard, traders on Polymarket strongly believe that the asset will likely trade below the crucial $2 level by the end of the month.
The blockchain-based prediction platform shows the $1.60 target carrying the highest probability at 32%, making it the most favored outcome among traders. The second most likely scenario places XRP at $1.20 with a 22% probability.
Polymarket data also indicates moderate expectations for higher price levels. XRP reaching $1.80 holds an 8% chance, while the probability of the token climbing to $2 stands at 4%.
More aggressive bullish targets received significantly lower odds, with $2.40 assigned a 2% probability and price levels of $2.60, $2.80, and $3.00 each holding roughly 1%.
On the bearish side, traders see limited chances of XRP falling sharply below current levels by the end of May 2026. The probability of XRP trading at $1 stands at 4%, while targets of $0.80 and $0.60 carry probabilities of 2% and 1%, respectively. The likelihood of XRP dropping to $0.20 was listed at less than 1%.
The data also reflects shifting market sentiment across several price targets. The probability attached to the $1.80 outcome declined by 42%, while the $1.60 prediction dropped by 20%. Meanwhile, the $1.20 target fell by 28%, suggesting traders have recently adjusted expectations surrounding XRP’s potential price movement.
Indeed, this outlook comes at a time when XRP has shown some rebound in the short term, aligning with the broader market sentiment.
Notably, as things stand, XRP lacks network-specific catalysts to drive price growth and has heavily relied on broader cryptocurrency market sentiment.
XRP price analysis
By press time, XRP was trading at $1.41, having gained almost 2% in the past 24 hours. On the weekly timeline, however, the asset remains down 0.2%.
Indeed, the short-term price movement has pushed XRP slightly above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $1.39, a sign that short-term momentum remains relatively stable. However, the token is still trading well below its 200-day SMA of $1.80, suggesting that the broader long-term trend remains under pressure despite recent stabilization.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 49.44, placing XRP in neutral territory. This indicates that the asset is neither overbought nor oversold at the moment, reflecting balanced market conditions with no strong directional momentum currently dominating price action.
