Moving into 2023, cryptocurrency investors will be monitoring Bitcoin’s (BTC) price action, given how it has battled bearishness across 2022. Indeed, Bitcoin’s performance has been influenced by different factors like macroeconomic elements that have weighed down the asset across 2022.
In this line, Finbold asked industry experts on their 2023 Bitcoin outlook and fundamentals likely to define the asset’s performance.
David Kemmerer, CEO CoinLedger crypto tax software
Kemmerer, who co-founded the crypto tax software CoinLedger, told Finbold that Bitcoin could slump further in 2023, citing extended effects from events like the FTX exchange collapse. However, in determining if Bitcoin could perform better than in 2022, the executive noted it depends on the macroeconomic environment.
“At least in the first half of 2023, BTC could drop to lower levels because of the extent of the contagion related to the collapse of FTX. Skepticism will remain high, pushing away possible cash flows from institutional investors. On a broader scale, financial advisors will be reluctant to deploy investors’ funds to risk assets, especially in the first half of the year. <…> The price movement of the flagship cryptocurrency could go either way. However, given a favorable macroeconomic environment, BTC prices could stabilize or even surge,” he said.
Elsewhere, he views adoption as the main fundamental factor driving Bitcoin’s price, especially by leading financial institutions.
“One major fundamental that could drive the price of BTC upwards is adoption. That can be seen in even the once laid-back traditional financial institutions like JPMorgan. Despite the staunch stance against crypto by the financial institution, the firm is softening, giving its customers exposure through the BTC trust funds,” he added.
Lastly, Kemmerer was skeptical of Bitcoin’s performance against gold in 2023. He noted that the asset has the potential to outperform the precious metal as a hedge against inflation.
Stefan Ristic, crypto miner running BitcoinMiningSoftware.com
According to Ristic, factoring in historical trends in determining Bitcoin’s price movement in 2023 will likely offer a glimpse of what to expect. In his projection, Bitcoin could drop to around $10,000 and $12,000, similar to the 2016/2017 and 2020/2021 periods.
However, he expects Bitcoin halving in 2024 to act as a major catalyst for a possible bull run in late 2024 to 2025.
“Most of the people from the industry expect a further downtrend in the following year. We’ve seen this pattern a few times already, and most likely, the same driving force (Bitcoin halving) will act again. Similar to 2016/2017 and 2020/2021, I expect Bitcoin to drop to the $10,000 to $12,000 range in 2023-2024,” he said.
Fraser Matthews, President of Netcoins crypto exchange
Mathews, the head of Canadian crypto exchange Netcoins, is signaling a bearish outlook for Bitcoin in 2023. He expects Bitcoin to slump further to around $10,000, and the asset risks people losing faith in its valuation.
“Things aren’t looking too bright for Bitcoin in 2023. It’s predicted that its valuation would further crash to $10,000. This means a 40% decrease from its current value. If this happens, it would be really upsetting news for investors looking to enter the market. Bitcoin currently stands at $17,000, but 2023 might be the real when many people lose faith in its valuation,” he said.
Elsewhere, he expected the Federal Reserve’s easing interest rate hikes as the critical catalyst to keep Bitcoin afloat in 2023. Mathews also pointed out that loosening the monetary policy could stabilize Bitcoin, but the asset will compete with gold.
Overall, Bitcoin is ending 2022 in a consolidation phase below the $17,000 level. By press time, the asset was trading at $16,676, having corrected less than 0.5% in the last 24 hours.
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