A trading expert has warned that Bitcoin (BTC) could fall towards $68,000 following the $6.3 billion Binance hack if the cryptocurrency loses a critical technical support level.
In a TradingView analysis published on October 30, TradingShot compared the Thursday Binance security breach with the November 2022 FTX collapse, suggesting that the latest incident could trigger another aggressive Bitcoin correction.
Before the hack, Bitcoin was trading around $77,000 and had struggled to reclaim its daily 50-day moving average (MA). The latest decline brought it close to its daily 100-day moving average, which is now acting as immediate support.
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By press time, Bitcoin was trading at $77,476, down more than 4% over the past week.
At its current price, Bitcoin remains below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $81,948, indicating persistent short-term bearish pressure. However, it is still above its 200-day SMA of $73,155, suggesting that the broader bullish structure remains intact.
Bitcoin next price targets
TradingShot identified the daily MA100 as the first critical support level to watch. A sustained break below it could expose Bitcoin to a deeper correction towards its weekly 200-day moving average, around $68,000.
The analyst considers this level particularly important because the moving average has historically helped identify Bitcoin’s major cycle bottoms, with the exception of the 2022 bear market.
TradingShot also identified $64,500 as another potential downside target, corresponding to Bitcoin’s 2.0 Fibonacci extension. This would represent a deeper correction if the latest decline follows a similar pattern to the FTX collapse.
The correction projection follows a $6.3 billion Binance hack, during which most of the funds were allegedly stolen within 20 minutes after attackers compromised the exchange’s transaction-signing infrastructure.
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Binance said it would cover the losses through its Secure Asset Fund for Users (SAFU) and corporate treasury, while approximately $3 billion in stolen assets had been frozen on-chain.
The incident has revived comparisons with the November 2022 FTX collapse, which triggered widespread market selling and helped establish Bitcoin’s bear market bottom.
Impact of FTX collapse
Following the FTX collapse, Bitcoin experienced a sharp sell-off before bottoming around $15,500. It subsequently recovered, reclaimed its major moving averages, and entered a new bull cycle in 2023.
TradingShot suggested the Binance incident could produce a similar market reaction, although the current market structure is different. Bitcoin had already established a cycle bottom on July 1, 2026, unlike during the 2022 bear market.
The analyst also drew on a previous comparison published on November 14, 2022, when TradingShot likened the FTX collapse to the 2015 Bitfinex hack. That analysis anticipated the subsequent market bottom and the recovery that preceded the 2023–2025 bull cycle.
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