Bitcoin (BTC) has been underperforming the bullish expectations of late 2024 throughout the first quarter (Q1) of 2025.
Specifically, after briefly hitting new all-time highs (ATH) above $109,000, the world’s premier cryptocurrency retraced significantly. In the year-to-date (YTD) chart, BTC is 11.98% in the red and is changing hands at $82,264.
Though the performance has been lackluster, recent developments – the 5.84% recovery from March 11 lows near $77,500 to be precise – have rekindled some hope that the coin could be positioning for an imminent rally.
Picks for you
On the other hand, the performance can also be interpreted as Bitcoin setting up a descending pattern of lower highs followed by lower lows.
Seeking clarity in the tumult, Finbold decided to consult Alphabet’s (NASDAQ: GOOGL) brand new Gemma 3 model – reportedly almost as advanced as DeepSeek despite running on a single GPU – on where BTC is likely to stand on Easter 2025.
Gemma 3 outlines Bitcoin’s path to Easter 2025
Unfortunately, given the positioning of the brand-new model, the price prediction it provided, as well as the reasoning behind it, was more reminiscent of outdated artificial intelligence (AI) models.
Specifically, when determining the bullish factors, Gemma 3 first reached for the post-halving cycle, providing the established assessment that the full impact of the supply shock tends to be seen only months after the event and that it’ll likely be in play by Easter.
Post-Halving Cycle: The April 2024 halving will have played out. Historically, the year following a halving has seen substantial price appreciation. The supply shock created by the halving typically takes time to impact the market fully. We’ll be well into that cycle by Easter 2025.
The AI also opined that continued exchange-traded fund (ETF) growth and adoption are also likely to generate tailwinds, estimated that technological advancements and layer-2 solutions remain bullish, and judged institutional adoption as positive.
Gemma 3 marked macroeconomic factors – primarily referring to the hopes inflation would be contained and interest rate lowered – as potentially giving cause for optimism, and also revealed that regulatory clarity would also drive the price upward.
It did mark these last two points as ‘hopefully.’
Gemma 3 also revealed that it continues factoring in the notion that Bitcoin is a safe-haven asset despite BTC’s price action in the wake of different recent external shocks, including the Iranian missile attack on Israel, heightened inflation, weak job reports, and the escalation of the trade war, all of which did much to damage the ‘digital gold’ narrative.
Gemma 3 describes the bearish factors that could impact Bitcoin
When describing the bearish factors, Gemma 3 pointed out – either implying possession of insider information or a lack of awareness about the latest election results – that a sudden and harsh regulatory crackdown against the industry would prove a major headwind.
Similarly, the AI estimated that competition from the other cryptocurrencies, security breaches, or a greater economic recession could drive BTC lower.
Finalizing the assessment, Gemma 3 concluded that black swan events could also be bearish and explained that a protracted sell-off is likewise likely to put downward pressure on Bitcoin.
Gemma 3 sets Bitcoin price target for Easter
Lastly, having analyzed Bitcoin’s position in March 2025, Gemma 3 explained that the cryptocurrency is likely to trade somewhere between $85,000 and $150,000 on Easter.
$85,000: This represents a conservative estimate, accounting for potential setbacks and a slower-than-expected adoption rate. It’s a reasonable floor given the historical post-halving performance.
$150,000: This reflects a more optimistic scenario, where the bullish factors dominate and Bitcoin continues to gain mainstream acceptance. It’s achievable if ETF inflows remain strong and institutional adoption accelerates. It also factors in the potential for a significant macroeconomic tailwind.
Such a price target indicates that BTC is likely to rally anywhere between 3.33% and 82.34%.
Featured image via Shutterstock
