Summary
⚈ Economists warn of potential recession despite market gains, citing macroeconomic concerns.
⚈ Goldman Sachs maintains recession outlook, issuing bullish gold price target as caution.
Despite the banking giant’s stern warning back on April 9, a recession and a bigger stock drawdown have not materialized since then — in stark contrast with Goldman Sachs’ initial prediction, the S&P 500 has actually risen since the tariff shock of early April.
At the time of the multinational investment bank’s prediction, the S&P 500 stood at 5,456, having marked a 9.52% move to the upside from the prior day’s close following the revision of earlier tariff policies.
By press time on May 7, the benchmark index had reached 5,663 —some 3.79% above levels seen at the time of Goldman Sachs’s recession warning.
Goldman Sachs recession warning might have been mistimed — but worries still remain
Despite the present S&P 500 rebound, the chief causes of concern — macroeconomic conditions and trade disputes, remain a constant worry.
In fact, the consensus seems to be that the issue has only been delayed instead of solved. Top economist David Rosenberg urged investors to “cleanse” their portfolios, stating that roughly 60% of the U.S. economy is either in recession or near it.
JPMorgan Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Jamie Dimon cautioned that a mild recession would be the best-case scenario going forward — a sentiment echoed by billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones, who now considers a stock market crash unavoidable. Moreover, oil demand, a proxy of the wider economy’s health, is declining.
Lastly, Goldman Sachs hasn’t revised its outlook either — with a recently issued bullish price target for gold clearly demonstrating that the banking giant still considers recession a distinct possibility.
Featured image via Shutterstock
