Amid ongoing discussions related to the Japanese Yen (JPY) carry trade by United States financial institutions, a forex trader believes the Dollar (USD) can regain strength against this pair, according to a technical analysis.
Notably, the analyst, who goes by Esmeralda_Gold, shared a trading idea on TradingView this Wednesday, targeting the 154.0 mark. If the pair moves as expected, the USD/JPY could reach this target by late October this year.
By the time she posted the prediction, the dollar still had not touched the highlighted demand zone. As of this writing, however, the USD trades at 144.0 JPY, which is right on what looks like strong price support.
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This zone was tested on two previous occasions. One from August 5 to 7 after the remarkable crash from 165.11 JPY, and from August 23 to 28.
Can the USD regain strength against the JPY?
In order to validate the analyst’s forecast, the U.S. Dollar must regain strength and bounce again from this level. Losing this support in a usually high-demand area could increase the Japanese Yen’s strength, further nuking the USD.
If the projection plays out as expected, the dollar could seek resistance between 151.80 and 154.14 JPY.
However, some fundamental forex analysts disagree with Esmeralda_Gold‘s technical analysis. In a discussion on X, two analysts demonstrated a bearish bias regarding the USD/JPY pair, expecting more dollar sell-offs.
From a fundamental perspective, the Yen can gain strength if the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continues to increase its interest rate at the same time the United States Federal Reserve hints at the first interest rate cut in years.
James Lavish, a “reformed” hedge fund manager, is now looking at the Nikkei 225 drop, suggesting a capital migration from the Japanese stock market to the money market, similar to what the U.S. experienced in the past two years. Moreover, Lavish mentions the Yen carry trade as a potential core driver for a weakening dollar.
Forex trading can suffer influence from different aspects, primarily related to central banking policies and the country’s developments or politics. Traders must closely follow news about these indicators to improve decision-making and, thus, the expected profits.
Disclaimer:The content on this site should not be considered investment advice. Investing is speculative. When investing, your capital is at risk.
