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Is Lucid stock set to rocket after crushing forecasts with Q1 deliveries?

Is Lucid stock set to rocket after crushing forecasts with Q1 deliveries?

Despite once garnering enough enthusiasm to gain a significant investment – and an ownership stake – from the Saudi Arabian Sovereign Wealth Fund, Lucid Motors (NASDAQ: LCID) has been facing significant adversity in more recent months.

The electric vehicle (EV) maker has, despite implementing a variety of measures, seen dropping sales and a matching stock market price – so much so that LCID shares have lost nearly 70% of their value in the last 52 weeks.

Lucid, however, may have just received a second wind as its latest delivery report – published April 9 – demonstrates that the price cutting and other demand-stimulating measures might have finally worked.

During the first quarter of 2024, Lucid Motors was expected to deliver 1,745 vehicles while in actuality, it shipped 1,967 beating the forecasts by about 12% – by about 220 cars. 

On the other hand, the EV maker failed to meet expectations in terms of manufacturing, having made 1,728 vehicles. Significantly fewer than the expected 2,123. The relatively low figure is likely a cost-cutting measure given that dwindling sales in the preceding quarters have probably left Lucid with a significant stockpile of unsold vehicles.

Are Lucid Q1 deliveries really impressive?

Despite the report constituting a significant shift in tone for Lucid, analysts haven’t received it with much enthusiasm with CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson – who expected 1,850 for deliveries and production alike – calling it a ‘mixed bag’ and pointing out that 1,967 vehicles do not constitute the scale Lucid would need to naturally lower costs.

It is also worth pointing out that back in 2021, Lucid estimated it would ship 90,000 vehicles in 2024 while. at the current pace, it will not even reach 9,000.

The fairly strong delivery figures come at the tail of numerous measures including significant price cuts, and a string of partnerships that already saw LCID enter a brief but significant rally towards the start of February. These include a multi-year deal with the Saudi Arabian aluminum manufacturer, a New York luxury commerce platform, and a novel leasing scheme.

Lucid stock price chart

Initially, the report caused heightened volatility for Lucid stock as it swiftly rallied at Tuesday’s market opening only to stagger and partially retrace. Nonetheless, LCID managed to end the session at $2.70 having climbed 2.27% during the day’s trading.

Still, the positive daily performance – coming at the tail of a stabilizing weekly chart as Lucid shares slowly started recovering after plunging to $2.59 on April 5 – has done relatively little to dampen the yearly drop. Indeed, LCID is 34.34% in the red year-to-date (YTD).

LCID stock YTD price chart. Source: Finbold

Despite the long-standing downtrend and the relative lack of enthusiasm in the immediate aftermath of the delivery report, the figures do present an opportunity for Lucid to recover significantly.

Admittedly, the recovery is likely to be truly made or broken only on May 6 with the upcoming earnings report once the sales are put in the wider context of the quarterly financials.

Until then, press time data shows that the EV maker might experience a slow climb as Lucid price today stands at $2.73 having risen 1.11% in the Wednesday premarket.

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