After its initial strong rally that took the equity to its all-time high of $225.64, SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock entered a downturn that saw it crash below the initial public offering (IPO) price of $135 and to $115.26 at the latest close.
Overall, SPCX shares’ performance ensured that the company lost $250 billion from its IPO valuation, with the rising downward momentum apparently threatening a fall below $100.
Notably, the move appears in line with an assessment published by Morningstar shortly before SpaceX stock trading started and which foresaw the equity’s fair value at approximately $70.
How SpaceX stock compares to other trillion-dollar companies
Additionally, the recent downturn appears consistent with the warning issued by multiple analysts and commentators that noted the severe discrepancy between the $1.77 trillion IPO market capitalization – comparable to Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) and Saudi Aramco – and the firm’s revenue and losses in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026.
Specifically, the semiconductor company reported revenue of over $19 billion in Q1, while SpaceX was below $5 billion.
Similarly, the international oil giant’s net income for the three months stood above $33 billion, while Elon Musk’s newer public company recorded an operating loss of nearly $2 billion.
What is next for SpaceX stock price?
Looking ahead, there appears to be relatively little to stop SPCX stock’s crash in the short-term.
Specifically, the equity’s float remains exceptionally low relative to a standard IPO, all insiders remain barred from selling, and the July 7 inclusion into the Nasdaq-100 benchmark index seemingly failed to generate significant buying pressure.
The final point might be a particularly strong signal that shares of SPCX are indeed headed below $100, considering the fast-track addition was widely expected to lead to widespread automatic purchasing by index funds.
Overall, Palantir (NASDAQ: PLTR) stock serves as a strong example of an equity’s trajectory after joining a benchmark, as it soared roughly 30% in its first month within the S&P500 and about 400% in its first year.
Still, one possible opportunity for a reversal could come with the August 4 earnings report, provided it beats analyst forecasts sufficiently – a plausible outcome given the company’s recent business transformation and compute agreements with Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL) and Anthropic.
Simultaneously, investors should be wary of the filing as, despite the $1.25 billion monthly deal with the world’s other most recognizable artificial intelligence company, revenue will be constrained by a discount for the initial quarter disclosed at the same time as the partnership.
SpaceX stock long-term price analysis
Looking further into the future, the performance of SpaceX stock does not become easier to forecast. On the one hand, the balance between revenue, profitability, and valuation remains a major concern and appears to largely back Morningstar’s comparatively bearish forecast.
On the other hand, much of SPCX’s initial share price and market capitalization was backed by projections for future revenue, which, in some estimates, amount to more than $1 trillion by 2030 – for more than a two-hundredfold increase from Q1, 2026 – and an overall total addressable market greater than $20 trillion disclosed in the S-1.
Wall Street certainly appears convinced in the growth story, given that SpaceX equity retains an overall ‘Strong Buy’ rating and an average 12-month price target of $243.81 for a 111.53% rally from the latest close.
Furthermore, the strength of the bullish consensus is further demonstrated by the fact that, despite the severe correction, SPCX shares boast 23 positive, 5 ‘Neutral,’ and only a single ‘Sell’ recommendation on the stock analysis platform TipRanks, per the data Finbold retrieved on July 23.
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