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Leading historical economic indicators point to recession

Leading historical economic indicators point to recession

Amid mounting warnings from various experts and investors of an impending recession, leading economic indicators over the last five decades seem to be at their side, suggesting that a global recession is, indeed, in the cards for the near future.

Specifically, the leading indicators, including by the global nonprofit think-tank and business membership organization Conference Board, are currently consistent with levels that have historically pointed to a recession, according to the data shared by finance analyst Game of Trades on May 30.

Leading economic indicators. Source: Game of Trades

As the analyst pointed out, the current contraction in the composite “incorporating 10 indicators that cover a wide range of economic activity, including job growth, housing construction, and stock prices,” corresponds to recessions in prior decades, including in the 1970s, the early 1980s, 1991, 2001, 2007-2009, and 2020.

Earlier, Bloomberg’s senior commodity strategist, Mike McGlone, also argued that all indicators were suggesting that the economy was “tilting down towards a severe recession,” as he focused on factors such as the Federal Reserve’s policies, brought to the fore by the interest rate hikes.

Banking crisis deepens

Meanwhile, deposits in all commercial banking firms have continued to contract at a rate never seen before, as Game of Trades has referred to this chart pattern as the “Deepest contraction. Ever.” in another tweet, also shared on May 30.

Deposits in all commercial banks. Source: Game of Trades

More recently, Robert Kiyosaki, the author of the best-selling personal finance book ‘Rich Dad Poor Dad,’ drew attention to the fact that Germany, the largest economy in the European Union (EU), was moving into a recession following the crashes of multiple major banks, as Finbold reported on May 24.

As it happens, the financial author took it as a warning sign that other countries could follow along the sliding path, including the United States, which is “sitting on the edge of a great depression,” as well as warning his viewers of the perils of holding their money in local banks.

Disclaimer: The content on this site should not be considered investment advice. Investing is speculative. When investing, your capital is at risk.

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