Although it is one of the best performing stocks of 2024 thus far, industry-leading chipmaker Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) is in a bit of a rough spot at the moment. It’s not that Nvidia is doing anything wrong — on the contrary, it seems to be a case of ‘suffering from success’.
There’s no denying that it has become increasingly hard for the Jensen Huang-led enterprise to impress its shareholders. On November 20, the company released its quarterly report covering Q3 FY 2025. It was a beat in terms of earnings and revenue, but Nvidia stock didn’t rise — it didn’t trade flat either, instead it fell.
While notable, this wasn’t entirely out of place — after all, profit-taking, even at such an aggressive level, is common when a stock’s price is trading at or near all time highs. The business is also valued at a level that corresponds to roughly 12% of the United States GDP — those valuation concerns won’t go away any time soon, and the outperformance of the company’s guidance vis a vis analyst estimates is continually narrowing.
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No one can deny that the pace of NVDA stock price growth has somewhat slowed down. At press time, one share of the semiconductor company was trading at $144.70 — on a year-to-date (YTD) basis, prices have risen by 200.79% — but only 3.43% of that growth has occurred within the last 30 days.
Institutional investors are still cautious about a potential AI bubble and increased AI spending from major tech companies. However, a recent bit of technical analysis suggests that the slump is temporary. If the chart pattern in question is legitimate, it suggests Nvidia shares could reach levels as high as $350 in the latter half of 2025.
Channel up pattern indicates Nvidia stock could reach $350 in August
In late December of 2018, Nvidia stock entered a channel up pattern, which signals bullish continuation. Since it occurs over a long timeframe, it was impossible to identify it as such at the time — but it played out, lasting more than two years. In that period, the stock’s price increased from $3.34 to as high as $33.38 by the end of the pattern.
Nvidia stock could be in the middle of a similar pattern right now, per renowned pseudonymous technical analyst TradingShot. The basic geometry of the pattern is sound — if legitimate, it began on October 10, one of the more pronounced wider market bottoms in recent memory.
The similarities are indeed striking. Both of the patterns begin with an oversold signal from the 1-week relative strength index (RSI). Following that, in both cases, prices rebounded once they converged with the 1-week MA200 (moving average). In the period after the rebound, the 1W MA50 serves as a support level.
In the first instance of the pattern, stock prices rose to meet the 6.0 Fibonacci extension — after which prices broke below the 50-week moving average and retreated downward. If this current pattern exhibits similar behavior, the price of NVDA stock could reach as high as $350 — equating to a 141.87% surge.
While that would represent a bigger move to the upside than in the first channel up, the second pattern has a steeper angle. The analyst also suggested that $190 and $240 — price points slightly below and above the 5.0 Fibonacci extension, which implies a 31.30% and 64.86% upside, respectively, could serve as more conservative price targets. The most ambitious price target remains a fringe take, however — the Street high price target for Nvidia stock is $220 — although some, like Saxo Bank, foresee that it will eventually reach $250.
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