Shares of Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR) are flashing a bearish technical signal after forming a daily death cross, with the potential impact likely resulting in the stock dropping below $100.
Notably, the death cross historically signals weakening momentum and the potential start of a deeper correction. It occurs when the 50-day moving average (MA) falls below the 200-day moving average, often confirming a broader downtrend.
According to analysis from TradingShot in a TradingView post on March 13, the signal appeared on the daily chart while the stock was trading around $153. Notably, PLTR ended the last trading session valued at $150, having crashed about 10% year-to-date.
The outlook noted the technical setup mirrors October 2021, when the stock briefly rallied after a similar death cross before continuing a broader bearish cycle. The current structure also shows lower highs since Palantir’s all-time high on November 4, 2025, suggesting a new bear cycle may already be underway.
At the same time, TradingShot noted that the next potential downside target sits near the weekly 100-week moving average, which the chart places around $110. A deeper decline could bring the stock toward the weekly 200-week moving average near $70.
If the broader bear cycle fully develops, the chart suggests the possibility of a move toward the 1.382 Fibonacci extension later in the cycle, implying a decline approaching 80% from the peak, similar to the magnitude of the correction during the 2022 downturn.
Under this scenario, the $70 region could become a key long-term support level where investors may begin accumulating shares if the stock continues to weaken through the year.
Overall, the technical warning comes as PLTR stock has made a rebound in the past month, with the stock up almost 15%.
PLTR stock fundamentals
The rebound comes amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East involving U.S.-Iran relations, which investors view as favorable for Palantir’s defense and government AI solutions.
Recent partnerships, including expansions with GE Aerospace for military aircraft readiness, NVIDIA for sovereign AI architecture, Centrus Energy, Ondas, and LG CNS, further bolster commercial momentum.
Fundamentals remain robust following the company’s Q4 2025 earnings, where revenue surged 70% year over year to $1.41 billion, with U.S. commercial revenue up 137% to $507 million and adjusted EPS of $0.25, beating estimates.
The firm guided 2026 revenue to $7.18–$7.20 billion and U.S. commercial revenue exceeding $3.14 billion, with strong free cash flow projections around $4 billion.
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