Though many of the stocks linked with the artificial intelligence (AI) boom regained lost ground following the initial DeepSeek shock, with the nuclear energy company Oklo Inc (NYSE: OKLO) being a particular trailblazer, Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) is yet to return into the green in 2025.
Indeed, after suffering a record one-day market capitalization wipe in late January, NVDA shares have only slightly risen and are trading at $133.37 – slightly above the latest closing price of $132,80 – meaning they remain 3.98% in the red year-to-date (YTD) at press time on February 12.
Still, Nvidia stock might soon receive a strong upward catalyst as the semiconductor giant is scheduled to release its latest quarterly earnings report on February 26, thus raising the question of whether investing now would be the right call.
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Should you buy Nvidia shares right now?
Despite the world’s biggest chipmaker boasting a history of outperforming expectations, investing in NVDA shares in early February with an eye for the next earnings report remains an uncertain affair.
Most of the recent filings have led to substantial volatility, with the firm’s stock swinging significantly both before and after ‘d-day.’ Investors have been uncertain about Nvidia’s prospects ahead of many of the previous reports, as evidenced by a 6.43% drop in February 2024 and the relative pre-earnings stagnation in May of the same year.
In both cases, the uncertainty and the selling pressure were replaced with buying frenzies in the immediate aftermath of the fillings. NVDA stock soared 15.10% by the end of the month in the first case and 15.46% in the second.
Though this might indicate that holding off for now but buying ahead of February 26 is the right call, it is also worth remembering that the latest two reports saw something of a change to the dynamic.
In August 2024, Nvidia shares climbed 1.51% in the lead-up to the filing but then fell more than 15% in the subsequent days. The situation was similar in November when the results led to a 7.23% drop.
NVDA stock remains a long-term winner
Simultaneously, history shows that most Nvidia investors would have seen their stakes appreciate significantly no matter when they purchased, as most of the earnings fluctuations were relatively short-lived, and the semiconductor giant’s overall performance remained upward.
Indeed, only those traders who entered an NVDA position during the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2024 – and those who bought at the very top of last June – would, at press time, be facing losses on their investment.
The idea of buying Nvidia shares ahead of the February 26 earnings is further reinforced precisely by the equity not enjoying a full recovery from the DeepSeek dip as it, arguably, still presents an opportunity to purchase at a ‘discount.’
Still, the situation surrounding the upcoming earnings might be entirely different than historically. To begin with, a pre-filing drop is relatively likely, as traders might be unusually nervous given the recent headwinds.
Why the February 26 Nvidia stock earnings might be different
President Joe Biden’s export restrictions, President Donald Trump’s tariffs, and DeepSeek’s release – along with multiple reported technical and production issues – have all done their part to darken the outlook for the semiconductor giant.
Despite this, the report itself is likely to be exceptionally strong as it covers the final quarter of 2024 – the last trimester not affected by any of the aforementioned developments in a major way. This setup could ensure a powerful rally once the figures are actually released, and particularly should investors sell en masse before the date.
Finally, though a post-earnings rally appears in the cards, optimism itself could spoil it. In the current most recent report, Nvidia beat analyst expectations by announcing earnings-per-share (EPS) of $0.81 and revenue of $35.08 billion.
Outperforming expectations once again might be a tall order as, by press time, Wall Street is expecting an EPS of $0.85 and revenue as high as $38.13 billion.
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