Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) continues to face relentless selling pressure, with the latest technical insights hinting at a possible turning point with a bottom likely on the horizon.
Recently, the stock lost its key $300 support level as uncertainty remains about when the sell-off will cool. At the close of the last trading session, TSLA stood at $272.04, down 4.4%, and has plunged 28% in the past month.
When will TSLA stock price bottom?
Regarding the electric vehicle (EV) maker’s next move, Mark Newton, Head of Technical Strategy at FlashInsights, cautioned that the decline may not be over while a bottom is on the horizon.
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In a March 4 post, he noted that Tesla’s pullback broke crucial support levels between $270 and $275, testing trends from last April’s lows.
Newton pointed to a TD Sequential buy setup (9 count) on daily charts, signaling possible short-term exhaustion. However, Tesla’s weekly chart is only at a 7 count out of 9, suggesting the true bottom may still be a week or two away.
Given this setup, Newton projected that Tesla would likely bottom in March, highlighting TDST levels at $238.89. He believes the $239 to $250 range could offer strong support next week, creating an attractive risk/reward opportunity for long-term investors.
“I feel TSLA bottoms in March, technically as this would gel with cyclical projections. However, one can’t rule out further weakness based on this breakdown and lack of weekly exhaustion,” Newton said.
Despite short-term weakness, he remains optimistic about Tesla’s long-term trajectory, stating, “TSLA likely moves to new highs this year.”
Still, Newton warned traders against buying dips prematurely due to ongoing selling pressure and the lack of clear exhaustion signals on the weekly charts.
His outlook aligns with stock trading analyst Peter DiCarlo, who, in a March 5 X post, noted that Tesla is now trading in the “smart money zone,” where institutions historically step in to stabilize the trend.
DiCarlo observed that major investors who bought in October and November, doubling their money, have remained on the sidelines as Tesla shed nearly 40%. He sees a potential re-entry point for institutions, with the stock testing the $272 to $262 range.
The analyst stated that Tesla must meet two conditions for a sustained recovery: a higher low on the daily BX indicator to trigger a rebound toward $320 to $330 and a bullish flip on the weekly BX to avoid a possible drop to $227. DiCarlo maintained an upside target of $400 to $473 over the next six months.
Why Tesla stock is struggling
Tesla’s recent struggles stem partly from broader market uncertainties, including concerns over Donald Trump’s tariff policies. However, the company’s fundamentals, declining brand loyalty, an aging vehicle lineup, and political controversies surrounding CEO Elon Musk have also driven the sell-off.
As reported by Finbold, Tesla is losing ground in Europe, with China’s BYD emerging as a key competitor.
In the UK, BYD outsold Tesla for the first time in January 2025, delivering 1,614 cars compared to Tesla’s 1,416. This was a year-over-year drop of 8% despite a 42% surge in the EV market.
Across Europe, Tesla’s registrations plunged 45% in January, with steep declines in Germany (-59%), France (-63%), and the Netherlands (-42%). This was despite overall EV sales growing 37% and battery-electric vehicles reaching a 15% market share.
Musk’s ties to U.S. politics, particularly his association with Trump and endorsements of far-right views in Europe, have fueled boycotts and negative sentiment, further eroding Tesla’s appeal. Investors have also raised concerns about Musk’s leadership amid growing government scrutiny.
Wall Street’s mixed take on TSLA stock price
Meanwhile, Wall Street is maintaining a mixed outlook on TSLA. For instance, Bank of America slashed Tesla’s price target from $490 to $380, maintaining a ‘Neutral’ rating due to falling sales, brand risks, and uncertainty around key product launches, including the low-cost model and Robotaxi.
However, Morgan Stanley remains optimistic. On March 3, analyst Adam Jonas reaffirmed Tesla as the firm’s top U.S. auto pick, maintaining an ‘Overweight’ rating and a $430 price target, implying a 44% upside. While Tesla’s deliveries have underwhelmed, Morgan Stanley sees the company’s transition beyond EVs into artificial intelligence and robotics as a long-term growth driver.
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