Overall, Elon Musk’s electric vehicle (EV) company, Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), has had a very strong 2023. The EV maker’s successes are particularly highlighted by early investor worries over Musk’s divided attention after his X (at the time known as Twitter) acquisition and the broader slowdown in the EV market.
Tesla has successfully navigated the year by implementing some price cuts, negotiating new potential export and production deals with India, launching the cybertuck and even making some technological breakthroughs enabling its Berlin gigafactory to start production on a new €25,000 ($27,000) car.
The EV maker’s stock market performance has also been strong, as its shares have risen well over 100% since January 1. Again, Tesla’s successes are most visible when compared with some of its prominent competitors – such as Lucid Motors (NASDAQ: LCID) – which have suffered setback after setback throughout 2023.
Picks for you
Still, Elon Musk’s EV maker is not quite yet out of the woods and remains plagued with certain issues – such as its persisting issues with its autopilot technology and the ever-present debate on whether its stock is overvalued or undervalued.
With the New Year less than two weeks away, at the time of publication, Finbold decided to see what Wall Street analysts are forecasting for the EV giant, as well as who some of its biggest bulls and bears are.
Wall Street analysts predict TSLA’s price in December 2024
As is commonly the case for Tesla, there is a vast rift in analysts’ opinions when it comes to where the company might find itself in 12 months. The most optimistic among them see the EV maker’s stock go as high as $380 in the coming 366 days (get ready for a 29-day February), while the pessimists see it crashing to just $85.
With these significant differences in mind, it is interesting to note that Tesla is still considered a moderate buy, with the average 12-month price target standing at $245.96 – a 2.43% downside compared to today – according to data compiled by TipRanks.
Opinions are also sharply divided on Tesla’s recent 2-million-vehicle recall linked to issues with its autopilot systems. The CFRA Research analyst Garrett Nelson opined that the recall, despite the large number of vehicles recalled, is a “non-event” since it is more of an update than a traditional recall.
Others, such as GlobalData’s Neil Saunders, pointed out that while the event may not be a financial disaster, it is still a setback that could adversely affect investor and consumer sentiment – especially given that the autopilot software is already commonly seen as something of a scam among Tesla’s critics.
Bernstein: TSLA’s biggest bears for 2024
Among Tesla’s bears, Bernstein analysts are perhaps the most notable – and most vocal – having recently started promoting shorting the stock of Musk’s EV maker as the best idea for 2024.
According to the analysts, forecasts for Tesla vastly overestimate its realistic value and consider the danger of a 40% downside very real. They cite the company’s limited and high-cost production lineup – specifically models 3 and Y – as major weaknesses.
Bernstein analysts also back their prognosis by pointing toward market saturation and the ever-increasing competition in the EV industry. They conclude that much like Tesla had to implement price cuts in 2023 to keep up, it will have to reduce the cost of its vehicles even more in 2024.
All in all, Bernstein analysts are skeptical about Tesla’s ability to sustain growth and meet expectations in the coming 2024 and consider a significant price decline a likely outcome.
The 2024 bull case for Tesla
While Bersntein’s bear case for Tesla makes multiple assumptions, the bull case for the company might either be far more straightforward or even more convoluted, depending on your position.
The straightforward view would simply state that Tesla is a market leader in the EV industry with a history of innovation, growth, and resilience under challenging circumstances – all factors indicating that the firm will perform well in the coming year.
Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas, in fact, is not only one of the voices that consider the recent recall an insignificant detail but also sees TSLA soaring as high as $380.
The more convoluted case takes into account numerous recent developments – and their hypothetical future outcomes – when building the argument. For example, while Tesla’s new €25,000 model sounds exciting and has the potential to significantly boost demand, it first has to prove itself to be a reliable car to do so.
Many bulls also point towards Tesla’s autopilot systems and involvement with artificial intelligence (AI) technology as major reasons for why Tesla might surge in 2024 – and indeed, should Tesla truly roll out a truly fully self-driving car, there is no telling how high its stock might shoot up.
Still, it is important to temper one’s expectations when it comes to self-driving cars since, while modern AI technology is stunning in its abilities, there is a very solid reason why ChatGPT features the “ChatGPT can make mistakes. Consider checking important information” disclaimer.
Another argument for why Tesla might surge in 2024, as previously reported by Finbold, is that its stock is currently very close to its 2020 price – after accounting for the 3-for-1 split – despite it growing significantly on the business side since then.
TSLA price analysis
Whichever way the winds of 2024 may blow, 2023 has, overall, been a fairly strong year for Tesla. Since January 1, its shares are up 133.19%. The last 30 days – 6.99% up – and the last 7 days – 5.49% in the green – have also been positive for the EV maker.
However, it has somewhat declined on Monday, the last full trading day at the time of publication, and is down 0.56% to $252.08.
Despite the overall positive trend, there was also significant volatility when it comes to TSLA, and judging by the analyst consensus – or rather, a lack thereof – the EV maker’s stock is likely to be one of the top stocks to watch next year whether you are a bull or a bear.
Buy stocks now with Interactive Brokers – the most advanced investment platform
Disclaimer: The content on this site should not be considered investment advice. Investing is speculative. When investing, your capital is at risk.
