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Tesla (TSLA) stock analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold in 2024?

Tesla (TSLA) stock analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold in 2024?
Elmaz Sabovic

After gains of over 60% in the previous year, Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has had a rocky start to 2024. The focus has shifted to the long-awaited Q4 earnings report that should be released on January 24.

On January 2, Tesla surpassed Wall Street’s fourth-quarter delivery predictions, setting a record with 484,507 vehicles sold and meeting its full-year target of 1.81 million in 2023. 

We explore what the upcoming 12 months could hold for TSLA, analyzing the possibilities for additional advancements and whether this stock is a buy, sell, or hold in 2024.

Analysts might be bearish on TSLA stock

Despite record deliveries, analysts remain reserved, with attention shifting to year-end earnings and potential profit challenges in 2024. Notably, TSLA’s price targets and ratings were maintained by various firms.

In Q4, Wall Street anticipates a 39% decline in EPS to 73 cents and a 5% revenue increase to $25.61 billion. Analysts project a 25% earnings dip to $3.07 per share and sales of $97.46 billion for 2023, reflecting a 20% rise from 2022. Looking ahead to 2024, earnings are expected to persist below 2022 levels.

On October 18, 2023, TSLA shares declined after Tesla announced Q3 earnings and revenue below expectations. The company reported a 37% decrease in third-quarter earnings to 66 cents per share, marking Chief Executive Elon Musk’s lowest figure in two years. Meanwhile, quarterly revenue increased by 9% to $23.35 billion. Tesla’s auto gross profit margins, excluding regulatory credits, dropped to 16.3%.

Comparatively, auto gross margins were 18.1% in Q2, down from 19% in Q1, falling below Tesla’s previously targeted 20% gross margin “floor.”

Why might TSLA stock suffer because of Elon Musk?

Elon Musk’s social media engagement could potentially impact TSLA stock. For instance, on November 16, Tesla shares dipped below a crucial technical level after a four-day, nearly 18% surge. This decline followed comments by Musk on X, seemingly expressing support for an antisemitic post.

In a separate instance on January 15, Musk stated on X that he requires more TSLA shares and voting power to position the EV giant as a leader in AI and robotics. Musk conveyed his discomfort with growing Tesla in these domains without having approximately 25% voting control. He emphasized the desire for enough shares to be influential but not to the extent of being immune to overturning.

TSLA stock price analysis

At the time of press, TSLA was trading at $211.88, marking a -1.70% decrease since the previous closure and a loss of -8.04% in the past five trading sessions.

TSLA 24-hour stock price chart. Source: Finbold
TSLA 24-hour stock price chart. Source: Finbold

Since the beginning of this year, this stock has lost -14.71% of its value.

Do Wall Street analysts recommend buying TSLA?

With the ongoing uncertainties and recent oscillation regarding this stock, most analysts recommend a ‘hold’ at 21, followed by ‘strong buy’ at 15, ‘strong sell’ at 6, ‘buy’ at 5, and only one ‘sell’ recommendation.

TSLA analyst recommendations. Source: TradingView
TSLA analyst recommendations. Source: TradingView

The average price target for this stock stands at $237.62, with an upside of 12.15% of the current value.

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