Bitcoin (BTC) is flashing warning signs that closely resemble the setup that preceded the final leg of the 2018 bear market, raising the possibility of a correction toward the $41,000 region.
In this line, analysis by TradingShot shared in a TradingView post on May 18 shows Bitcoin facing a strong rejection at its 200-day moving average (MA) on the weekly timeframe near $81,000.
The rejection coincided with the largest bearish weekly candle in nearly two months, signaling renewed selling pressure after BTC attempted to recover from earlier lows.
The outlook compares Bitcoin’s current market structure to the 2018 bear cycle, highlighting a similar rejection at the 1D MA200 roughly 220 days after the cycle top.
Notably, in 2018, BTC failed at the same resistance before entering a prolonged consolidation phase that later ended in capitulation and a cycle bottom.
The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) was also rejected near the 51.50 level in both cycles, signaling weakening momentum. The 2018 setup led to weeks of sideways trading before a sharp sell-off followed.
Now, the current structure suggests the cryptocurrency could enter a similar consolidation range before another leg lower.
The analysis projects a potential decline toward the 1.5 Fibonacci extension near $41,250, identified as a possible bear market bottom.
Key Bitcoin price levels to watch
On the other hand, Bitcoin is also approaching a critical technical zone as traders monitor key support and resistance levels that could shape its next major move.
Data shared by Ali Martinez on May 19 and sourced from Glassnode highlights resistance at $78,258 and $84,569, while major support levels stand at $75,733 and $66,898.
The URPD (UTXO Realized Price Distribution) chart shows where large amounts of Bitcoin supply last moved, revealing areas of heavy buying activity that often act as strong price barriers.
The biggest concentration of supply sits near $84,569, making it a key resistance zone. A breakout above that level could strengthen bullish momentum, while failure to reclaim it may leave Bitcoin stuck in consolidation.
On the downside, $75,733 is the nearest support level with notable buying interest. If that area breaks, the next major demand zone sits around $66,898, where another large group of holders accumulated BTC.
The data also shows thinner supply gaps between some levels, suggesting Bitcoin could see increased volatility once price breaks decisively in either direction.
Bitcoin price analysis
By press time, Bitcoin was trading at $76,939, up 0.2% in the past 24 hours, though BTC remains down 4.5% on the weekly timeframe.
The asset is currently trading above its 50-day SMA of $75,645, suggesting short-term support remains intact, and buyers are still defending the recent trend.
However, Bitcoin remains below the 200-day SMA at $81,464, indicating the broader trend is still under pressure unless the price reclaims that long-term resistance level.
Meanwhile, the 14-day RSI stands at 44.99, placing Bitcoin in neutral territory. This suggests momentum is neither oversold nor overbought, reflecting a lack of strong conviction from either bulls or bears.
