Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) could climb to $1,700 by early September 2031 if its current artificial intelligence (AI) bull cycle repeats the pattern that preceded the Dot-com bubble peak.
In an October 26 TradingView post, analyst TradingShot argued that MSFT could enter the second phase of its rally after holding support at its 50-month moving average (MA).
The analysis compares the stock’s current 18-month sideways trading range with the accumulation phase of the 1990s internet boom, when Microsoft similarly consolidated around its long-term moving average before advancing toward its Dot-com peak.
The comparison comes with a warning where MSFT’s monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has formed lower highs, suggesting weakening momentum despite the stock holding support.
A sustained break below the MA50 would weaken the historical comparison and undermine the projected second phase of the AI bull cycle.
At the current price of $532, MSFT would need to gain approximately 219% to reach $1,700, more than tripling its share price over nearly five years.
TradingShot’s projection uses Fibonacci retracement levels of 0.236 and 0.382 to compare the two cycles, with the MA50 serving as the key support indicator.
However, the outlook does not establish that the historical pattern will repeat. The $1,700 target is a long-term technical projection, not a consensus analyst price target or company forecast.
MSFT stock fundamentals
Reaching it would depend on Microsoft maintaining support, translating AI investments into revenue and earnings growth, and navigating valuation and broader market risks.
Microsoft’s financial performance supports the long-term bullish case, although it does not validate the bullish price target.
For the fiscal fourth quarter ended June 30, 2026, Microsoft reported revenue of $90 billion, up 18% year over year, and net income of $35.8 billion, up 31%.
Microsoft Cloud revenue rose 27% to $59.3 billion, while Azure and other cloud services revenue grew 43%. Commercial remaining performance obligations reached $678 billion, reflecting contracted future revenue.
These results highlight demand for Microsoft’s cloud and AI services, and the next test comes with its fiscal first-quarter 2027 reporting, scheduled for October 28, with investors watching Azure growth, AI adoption, capital expenditure, and guidance. Analysts expect revenue of approximately $90.6 billion and adjusted earnings of $4.71 per share.
MSFT stock risks
However, Microsoft’s heavy AI investment could complicate its path toward $1,700. Fiscal 2026 capital expenditure, including capital leases, reached approximately $145.3 billion.
At the same time, reports indicate that Microsoft was offering voluntary buyouts to eligible employees as it sought to control costs while funding its AI expansion.
Investors are increasingly assessing whether AI revenue will justify the cost of building and operating the necessary infrastructure.
Continued Azure growth and enterprise adoption could support MSFT, while slower growth, margin pressure or disappointing investment returns could weigh on the stock.
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