Top executives from some of Wall Street’s most powerful institutions are cautioning that U.S. equity markets could soon face a major pullback, as valuations reach historically elevated levels and investor optimism continues to fuel record-breaking rallies.
Speaking at the Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Summit in Hong Kong, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said equity markets may experience a 10% to 20% correction within the next 12 to 24 months.
While he described the current environment as broadly positive, Solomon noted that such drawdowns are common in prolonged bull markets and do not necessarily indicate structural weakness.
“When you have these cycles, things can run for a period of time. But there are things that will change sentiment and will create drawdowns, or change the perspective on the growth trajectory, and none of us are smart enough to see them until they actually occur,” Solomon said.
Natural correction from stocks
Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick shared a similar outlook, suggesting that investors should view moderate corrections as a natural part of healthy market cycles, provided they are not triggered by macroeconomic shocks.
“We should welcome the possibility that there would be drawdowns, 10% to 15%, that are not driven by some sort of macro cliff effect,” Pick said.
Pick added that in the coming year, market focus is likely to shift toward company fundamentals, with stronger returns expected from firms showing solid earnings growth, particularly beyond the already-expensive technology sector.
Citadel founder Ken Griffin also acknowledged that markets remain in a strong bull phase, driven by investor enthusiasm and fear of missing out. However, his remarks highlight the growing sense that current valuations may be unsustainable without continued earnings expansion.
Goldman’s Solomon pointed out that while technology valuations appear stretched, the broader market still offers opportunities for disciplined investors.
Elevated stock market
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon had previously issued a similar warning, saying the U.S. stock market faces an elevated risk of a significant correction within the next six months to two years. He highlighted geopolitical tensions, rising fiscal spending, and global militarization as growing sources of instability.
The warnings come as the benchmark S&P 500 continues to climb, recently touching new record highs and reviving comparisons to the dot-com boom. Despite concerns over inflation, high interest rates, and persistent policy uncertainty, investor sentiment has remained remarkably resilient.
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