The past month has been a bit of a slump for Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), the stock having fallen 4.76%.
Nevertheless, one market expert in particular predicts that Nvidia’s stock price could reach a new all-time high in the first quarter of 2026, albeit with a caveat that a short reversal is likely before momentum picks up again.
Namely, according to respected analyst Peter DiCarlo, NVDA shares could likely trade at $225 by the end of March next year, as Nvidia’s monthly BX indicator, designed to help identify trend changes, shifted bullish in June, resulting in a roughly 28% rally since.
DiCarlo further added in his December 15 post on X that Nvidia stock remains attractive even during pullbacks, calling prices below $193 a ‘discount.’ A truly negative scenario, he argued, would lead to a retracement toward the $160–$165 range. However, these prices would still set the stage for an approximately 30% upside in the next 90–110 days.
“I’ve got $NVDA at $225 by end of Q1 2026. Under $193 is a discount; worst case I see a dip to $160–165 before the next leg and ~30% upside in the next 90–110 days.” DiCarlo noted.
In response to inquiries about more serious crashes, the analyst acknowledged that a drop to $100–$110 would be a reasonable Nvidia stock price target.
NVDA stock price outlook
At the time of writing, NVDA shares were trading at $177.73, down roughly 15% from their October 29 record highs above $207 but still up 32% year-to-date.
The management expects $65 billion in revenue next quarter, implying approximately 65% year-over-year growth. Still, some portions of the market do remain cautious, especially regarding sustainability at current valuation levels.
Indeed, the chipmaker currently trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of about 45, a level easily seen as elevated despite the company’s strong growth profile. For comparison, the S&P 500 trades at an average P/E multiple near 31.
What’s more, Nvidia’s revenue growth has already slowed down. This is evident in the last quarter’s 62% growth in comparison with 94% during the same period a year ago. At the same time, while Nvidia controls around 80% of the artificial intelligence (AI) accelerator market, competitors such as Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) have begun to pose a serious threat.
In short, Nvidia continues to enjoy strong demand from hyperscaler customers, with its data center segment remaining the primary engine of revenue growth and ensuring the majority of analysts are bullish on the company. However, the recently negative price action and valuation concerns still hint at potential short-term volatility in the coming months before a more sustained upside trend can take hold.
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