Although less than optimistic, the Wall Street consensus about the potential of Nio (NYSE: NIO) stock is hardly reflective of the beating the Chinese electric vehicle (EV) maker has taken since 2025 started.
Specifically, NIO shares are, on average, considered a ‘hold’ with seven such ratings on the stock analysis platform TipRanks. The remaining four analyst assessments are divided equally between ‘sell’ and ‘buy’ recommendations.
The average 12-month price target for the EV maker’s equity is substantially more bullish, at $4.86. Should it be reached, it would indicate Nio has rallied 38.07% from its press time price of $3.51.
Still, it should be noted that much of the average bullishness is owed to the highest forecast of $8.10, assigned on March 24 by Citi’s (NYSE: C) Jeff Chung. It is noteworthy, however, that despite the vast upside, the target was the result of a downgrade from $8.90, though the rating itself remained a ‘buy.’
Furthermore, the other most recent revision, provided on April 10 by Mizuho’s Vijay Rakesh, has been far more bearish, featuring a ‘neutral’ and a forecast downgrade from $4.20 to $3.50.
Why Nio is struggling in 2025
The reasons for the prevailing uncertainty can be found in Nio’s lackluster business and stock market performance.
For example, the EV maker’s latest earnings report – covering the fourth quarter (Q4) and unveiled in late March – disappointed in terms of revenue and earnings per share (EPS), while offering little forward-looking consolation as it was accompanied by weak guidance.
In the stock market, NIO shares are down 19.61% year-to-date (YTD) and changing hands at $3.51. Though the initial months of 2025 featured a steady climb, trading has been overwhelmingly negative in recent weeks.
Could Nio regain positive momentum in 2025
Outside the financials, there is cause for positivity among Nio stakeholders. The EV maker’s March deliveries report came in strong, showcasing a 26.7% year-over-year (YoY) growth for the month and 40.1% growth for Q1. In the three months, the car company shipped 42,094 vehicles.
The ongoing quarter might prove even stronger as Nio’s Firefly model will start reaching customers on April 29 – a highly positive development given the attractive $16,410 price tag in China.
On the technological side, Nio recently entered an artificial intelligence (AI) partnership with Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) along with the German automotive giant BMW.
Still, the battle for the EV maker’s future is far from won, as exemplified by Professor Zhu Xican from the School of Automotive Engineering at Tongji University, who recently opined that Nio cannot survive as an independent company unless it grows its annual sales to above 2 million.
According to the same analyst, several other Chinese EV makers, including Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV) and Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI), face a similar risk of disappearance due to their own specific shortcomings.
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