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Wall Street sets SMCI stock price for the next 12 months

Wall Street sets SMCI stock price for the next 12 months

The Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI) stock is a noteworthy performer in 2024, primarily propelled by its capitalization on the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution alongside robust financial performance. 

The growth can partly be tied to the company’s ability to specialize in advanced servers and storage equipment tailored for handling the rigorous workloads of AI applications like OpenAI’s ChatGPT.

In 2024 alone, the stock has more than doubled, reaching new all-time highs, with investors contemplating the next trajectory the equity will take.

At the beginning of the year, SMCI was valued at $285, and as of the close of markets on February 9, it has demonstrated year-to-date gains of nearly 160%, trading at $740.29. This follows an exceptional 2023 performance, during which the stock surged by 246%.

SMCI three-month stock price chart. Source: ChartMill

Analysts offer SMCI projection 

However, the meteoric rise in SMCI’s stock has introduced an element of uncertainty regarding the sustainability of the rally. Investors are monitoring the trajectory to gauge the ongoing viability of the upward trend.

In this line, according to data retrieved by Finbold on February 10 from TipRanks, six Wall Street analysts provided a 12-month projection based on SMCI’s performance over the past three months, indicating a potential downside for the equity.

The consensus among the analysts suggests an average price target of $551 for Super Micro Computer. This assessment includes a high-end forecast of $700 and a low-end estimate of $160.

The average price target reflects a -25.57% change from the stock’s last recorded price, implying an overall expectation of a decline in the stock’s value over the next 12 months.

SMCI stock 12-month forecast. Source: TipRanks

SMCI key upside fundamentals 

Although analysts are projecting a downside for SMCI in the coming months, the company possesses strong underlying fundamentals likely to spur sustained gains. Its strategic position in the AI space and key partnerships with major AI chip manufacturers, such as Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) and  Intel (NASDAQ: INTC), position SMCI for further growth. 

The company’s hardware is specifically designed to support AI chips developed by these industry giants. SMCI’s rich clientele, including NASA, adds to its positive outlook.

The favorable landscape for the AI hardware market is noteworthy, as indicated by large technology companies, including Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL),  Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META), and Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), signaling aggressive investment in AI infrastructure during the latest earnings wave. This trend positions SMCI as a potential beneficiary.

The company’s recent financial success further reinforces its positive trajectory. In the latest financial quarter (Q2 FY2024), SMCI reported remarkable success, achieving $3.66 billion in sales—a staggering 103% increase compared to the previous year. This figure notably surpassed the company’s guidance of $2.8 billion for the quarter, leading to the stock reaching new all-time highs.

The positive momentum driving SMCI’s stock is not solely based on historical performance but is also supported by optimistic financial guidance for the upcoming quarters and the entire fiscal year.

The global server market is projected to present a substantial growth opportunity for SMCI. Furthermore, Super Micro is actively expanding its production sites, aiming to increase its revenue generation capacity to more than $25 billion annually.

SMCI stock downsides 

On the other hand, Super Micro, propelled by the generative AI wave, faces intense competition from industry giants like Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO), emerging players in the AI hardware market. 

Its growth also hinges on partnerships with semiconductor leaders, making it a derivative bet on their success. The lack of robust patent protection and vulnerability to litigation adds risk to its business model. 

Super Micro’s perceived lack of portfolio diversification further raises concerns for investors, prompting a cautious approach regarding the stock. 

Disclaimer: The content on this site should not be considered investment advice. Investing is speculative. When investing, your capital is at risk. 

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