In a turn of events uncomfortably similar to the 19th-century wave of anarchist attacks on European royalty, U.S. security forces prevented a second assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump on September 15.
Given the buzz surrounding potential short selling of Trump Media (NASDAQ: DJT) shares immediately ahead of the July attack in Butler, Pennsylvania, many investors quickly turned their eyes to such activity on Friday, September 13.
Insights can be gathered from the data covering publicly disseminated trades provided by the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA).
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Per the records, there has been a notable uptick just days ahead of the attempted shooting.
Indeed, short volume on September 12 was recorded at 2.3 million, and total volume at 4.03 million, and they rocketed to 8.8 million and 15.02 million, respectively, by September 13.
Also, Friday’s short volume was among the highest since August 30, at 59.02%, but it was not the highest in the last 10 days. The ratio rose some 9% between September 10 and September 11 and peaked at 61.47% one day after the Trump-Harris debate.
Still, Nasdaq is yet to provide short interest figures for trading after August 30 and more comprehensive conclusions will only be possible once official data for the first half of September is made available.
Why are Trump Media short positions suspicious?
The main reason for the interest in a possible surge in short positions ahead of the latest attack is the strange activity reported following the previous assassination attempt.
Indeed, for a time in July, it appeared that DJT’s short interest rocketed to unprecedented highs. Furthermore, the activity became even more suspicious because nearly all of it came from a single firm: Austin Private Wealth.
Nonetheless, the July conspiracy theories were quickly disproven by a statement made by the offending company that their short position was misreported and filed as 10,000 times greater than it was.
Why the DJT short volume is probably not linked to the attack on Donald Trump
While such an uptick can and may lead to significant speculation both judging by the virality of the clerical error that indicated massive short interest ahead of the Butler attack and by the uncomfortable shorting data on airlines’ stocks ahead of the September 11 attacks, it is more than likely the trading is not connected to the shooting.
Trading volume has massively increased since the Harris-Trump debate on September 10, with an associated jump in volatility.
The fact that DJT shares essentially fell off a cliff, dropping from $19.22 to $15.75 following the televised duel between the candidates in particular explains the surge in short volume.
In general, trading of Trump Media stock has been dramatic in the last five days as, along with crashing, the shares managed an impressive, 11% recovery on Friday, September 13, as they rapidly rose from approximately $16.26 to about $17.92.
Additionally, there has been substantial drama surrounding the shares even before the attack, with Nasdaq halting trading on several occasions on Friday due to high volatility.
Former President Trump has criticized the moves, questioning whether Nasdaq is ‘taking orders from the SEC’ and promising that he will ‘hold NASDAQ, and maybe the SEC, liable for doing what they are doing.’
The Republican candidate also threatened that, if there are more delays and halts, he would change DJT’s listing to the NYSE.
DJT stock price analysis
Finally, one area where the latest attack on Trump is already having a major and measurable impact is in the extended session performance of DJT stock.
As soon as the Monday pre-market trading started, Trump Media shares soared more than 4%, though there remains some uncertainty about whether the momentum can be sustained.
Given both the post-debate drop and the Friday surge to the latest closing price of $17.97, the buying pressure may be countered by the selling activity from investors attempting to exit their position while they are still in the green or only experiencing limited loss.
Still, the July scenario may be repeated. Under such circumstances, DJT could experience a 20-30% rally in the coming days. However, the stock may continue facing strong downward pressure until at least the November elections, no matter its imminent, short-term moves.
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