Summary:
⚈ May 7 earnings report likely to shape short-term investor sentiment
⚈ Past DLCs had limited stock impact unless paired with strong fundamentals
Elden Ring has been a resounding success for its developer, From Software, and its publisher, the Japanese video game giant Bandai Namco (TYO: 7832), having sold more than 30 million copies.
Both companies, as well as the dedicated player base, are set to receive another boon before the end of May as the Souls-like is scheduled to receive another expansion in the form of the Nightreign DLC (downloadable content).
Looking at the historical player count and stock price through the lens of Elden Ring releases, it is possible that investors in Bandai Namco will also enjoy the fruits of the launch.
Could Elden Ring Nightreign move Bandai Namco stock?
On February 25, 2022, the day Elden Ring first released, Bandai Namco shares were changing hands at ¥2,813 (~$19.54) and soared 11.33% to ¥3,132 (~$21.75) by March 25, 2022. This means traders who bet $1,000 on the game’s success would have recorded a profit of $113.30 within just one month.
Given the previous impact, the May 30 DLC release could provide the video game publisher with strong tailwinds and enable it to continue the rally that has already seen its stock rally 35.73% year-to-date (YTD).
Bandai Namco’s upcoming earnings could decide the impact of Nightreign
The effect could prove particularly strong should Bandai Namco’s upcoming earnings report – scheduled for May 7 – prove as strong as the filing unveiled on February 5. It is worth remembering that, though the company’s strong YTD performance, it owes most of the year’s rally to the previous filing.
Between January 6, the first full session of 2025 in Tokyo, and February 4, Bandai Namco stock moved 3.90% from ¥3,714 (~$25.80) to ¥3,859 (~$26.80). Upon the previous quarterly release, it rallied 24.95% to ¥4,822 (~$33.49) within just two days and climbed a relatively modest 4.54% to its May 5 press time price of ¥5,041 (~$35.01).
Why Nightreign might not move Bandai Namco stock
Elsewhere, the historical performance of the Japanese video game giant’s stock in relation to Elden Ring releases demonstrates that Nighteign has a better chance to bolster an existing rally than to initiate one on its own.
Elden Ring’s player count on Steam recorded two notable peaks with more than 950,000 concurrents on the game’s original release and more than 750,000 in June 2024, soon after Shadow of the Erdtree, the previous DLC, launched, according to the data Finbold retrieved from SteamDB on May 5.
Despite this and the February and March rallies in 2022, Shadow of the Erdtree didn’t cause a blip in the stock market, demonstrating the limitations of expansion packs in moving markets.
However, the DLC was noted as exceptionally difficult and unfriendly to casual players, thus potentially limiting its impact. Should Nightreign prioritize accessibility, it could lead to sufficient financial success to trigger a rally, although it could simultaneously trigger backlash from the core fan base.
Lastly, there is always a danger that Nightrein will be a failed DLC, though the popularity of Elden Ring and From Software’s track record as a developer make such an outcome unlikely.
Featured image via Shutterstock
