On March 6, the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) metric for XRP fell below 1, indicating the cryptocurrency market sell-off led to investors dumping their tokens at a loss.
As could have been expected given the signal issued by the measurement, the token reversed the decline mere days after the fact, rallying from the March 9 low at $1.34 to its March 13 press time price of $1.43.
Simultaneously, XRP Ledger activity led to a substantial rise for the SOPR metric, which has not only climbed above 1, but also hit its highest reading since November 2025.
Specifically, on November 27, the XRP SOPR stood at 1.11 and, at the most recent reading on March 12, it was at 1.08.
Why XRP SOPR at 3-month high might signal imminent crash
Elsewhere, while a metric hitting its highest value in multiple months might easily be considered bullish – especially since SOPR reveals if the cryptocurrency is above its cost-basis – the theory behind the measurement hints that the token’s next move might be a crash.
Indeed, as outlined in Renato Shirakashi’s – the creator of the indicator – 2019 article, SOPR is described as based on human psychology and the tendency of traders to try to avoid selling at a loss.
Therefore, with the XRP Spent Output Profit Ratio standing above 1 and, therefore, above the cost basis, the majority of investors have an opportunity to sell at a profit, increasing the odds of a downward correction.
Why March XRP rally could accelerate
Still, under the prevailing market conditions in March 2026, traders might gain sufficient confidence to accept continued long XRP positions, thus extending the rally.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) own recent performance – and the climb above $72,000 after a week of trading under $67,000 – can be interpreted as a sign that digital assets are making a comeback.
Considering BTC’s traditional leadership in the space, holding above at the relatively high valuation could lead to bullish contagion.
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