Gold’s record-breaking year may only be the beginning. JPMorgan has placed a marker on the metal’s trajectory, projecting prices will average just above $5,000 per ounce by the final quarter of 2026, a level the bank believes will be supported by relentless demand from investors and central banks.
At around $4,058 per ounce on Friday, gold is already up nearly 48% year-to-date, its strongest annual performance since the late 1970s. Prices hit an all-time high of $4,381 earlier this week before slipping as traders locked in gains, but JPMorgan views that pullback as consolidation rather than a shift in the underlying trend.
“Gold remains our highest conviction long for the year, and we see further upside as the market enters a Fed rate-cutting cycle,” stated, Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Strategy at JPMorgan.
The bank argues that the forces powering this rally are structural. Central banks are expected to keep adding roughly 566 tons of gold each quarter in 2026, while investor allocations are rising as concerns about stagflation, fiscal policy, and currency stability mount. With the Federal Reserve preparing to enter a rate-cutting cycle, the opportunity cost of holding bullion will fall further, strengthening its case as a hedge.
JPMorgan notes the current surge is less about “de-dollarization” and more about diversification. International holders of U.S. assets are steadily tilting portfolios toward the yellow metal, carving out a bigger role for the metal as insurance against policy missteps and currency debasement.
Looking further ahead, JPMorgan has reaffirmed its $6,000 target for 2028, framing gold as a long-term conviction trade rather than a short-term momentum play.
