Oracle (NASDAQ: ORCL) is in the spotlight once again, its shares edging up 2.3% in pre-market on Wednesday, February 25, driven by a new price target from Wall Street.
Namely, Oppenheimer analyst Brian Schwartz has upgraded his ORCL stock rating to ‘Buy,’ with a price target of $185 for the next twelve months, implying a more than 25% upside from the last close at around $146.
However, Schwartz noted that the call may still be early, given that Oracle will need some time to show how financially successful its capital-intensive business is going to be.
Oppenheimer nonetheless believes the risk-reward profile has turned attractive, noting that the stock’s valuation multiples have been slashed by more than 50% since September.
“While our call may be early, since it will take time for Oracle to show financial success as a more capital-intensive business in future results, we see a favorable risk/reward after the stock’s multiples have been cut by more than half since September,” Schwartz wrote.
As investors eagerly await the tech company’s next earnings report scheduled for March 9, the analyst argues that Oracle is a strong AI winner, as sentiment shifts and amid mitigating risks.
Oracle stock outlook
While Oracle shares are up more than 2% in pre-market trading at press time, the stock is down roughly 25% in 2026, extending a steep selloff that began in late 2025. The decline has been driven largely by investor concerns over the company’s aggressive spending on artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud infrastructure.
Schwartz still views Oracle as a “strong EPS compounder,” though, noting that his base-case scenario applies a 25% haircut to management’s revenue guidance yet still calls for earnings to double by fiscal 2030.
In the analysis, Oppenheimer projected Oracle’s pro-forma earnings per share could grow at a 20% CAGR through fiscal 2023 in its base case, reaching $12.66. In a bull-case scenario, EPS would compound at roughly 30% annually to $17.79.
The note cited several factors supporting the optimism, including easing counterparty, financing, and execution risks following recent capital-raising initiatives and major customer wins such as OpenAI.
Still, the analyst acknowledged that investor skepticism is understandable, pointing to concerns about balance sheet strain, margin pressure tied to AI investments, elevated counterparty risk, and the significant financing required to fund Oracle’s infrastructure expansion.
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