Bitcoin (BTC) price faces a potential correction in the near term as spot demand wanes amid more bearish whale derivatives traders.
Bitcoin price recently rallied from $66,000 to hit $79,500 for the first time since late January, largely fueled by renewed demand in the perpetual futures market, according to analytics from CryptoQuant. Furthermore, BTC was net sold in the spot market during the past 30 days, despite its contraction driven by renewed demand from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) led by BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT).
A similar scenario was observed in early January 2026, when Bitcoin price rallied towards $98,000, catalyzed by derivatives demand amid net spot sellers. Consequently, BTC price could capitulate in the near future if derivative traders begin taking profits amid net selling pressure in the spot market.
The odds of BTC price capitulating recently surged after more retail traders added more long leverage positions while whales positioned for a correction, based on metrics from Alphractal. Notably, in the last 5 instances of such a divergence, whales won 4 times against retail traders.
What’s next for the Bitcoin price?
The recent Bitcoin price pump has not invalidated its macro bear market, according to Aksel Kibar, an ex-fund manager. Furthermore, the flagship coin has been trading inside a bearish flag, characterized by a consolidation rising channel, since early February to date.
Although Bitcoin price has pumped above the average cost basis of recent buyers, as Finbold explained, it has been rejected twice on the upper boundary of the rising channel. As such, BTC price could capitulate below $70,000 again to retest the lower bound of the macro bearish flag.
However, Bitcoin price could continue to rally further, and potentially kickstart a fresh bull rally if spot demand rises and derivatives markets turn bullish.
