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Bitcoin’s historical patterns hint at next narrative BTC will break

Bitcoin’s historical patterns hint at next narrative BTC will break

Bitcoin (BTC) is at the center of the financial markets after breaking its all-time high in a week to surpass the $70,000 mark in the latest rally. In this line, the focus is on where Bitcoin will land next, considering that the record high has deviated from the past norms of emerging after the halving event. 

In looking at the next Bitcoin trajectory, crypto trading expert TradingShot projected in a TradingView post on March 8 that the next narrative for Bitcoin will likely target over $300,000. 

The analyst presented the ‘Cycle of Narrative Destruction,’ highlighting how historical patterns will likely influence the next BTC trajectory. According to the expert, Bitcoin’s journey since the beginning of the 2021 bear cycle has been marked by unexpected twists, prompting speculation on the next narrative to be broken.

Bitcoin price analysis chart. Source: TradingView

The first narrative emerged on June 13, 2022, when Bitcoin breached the previous record high of $19,350. This unexpected move set the stage for a series of narrative shifts.

Another narrative emerged in November 2022, post-FTX crash; it dipped below the one-week moving average of 300 for the first time, leading to the inaugural one-week death cross by February 2023. A swift recovery in 2023 saw Bitcoin form its one-week golden cross between December and January 2024. 

TradingShot pointed out that these events challenge conventional expectations, emphasizing Bitcoin’s unpredictable and dynamic nature, providing both challenges and opportunities for market participants.

Analysing Bitcoin’s next narrative 

With five major narrative breaks in just 18 months, the following question is how Bitcoin will perform next, with the analyst presenting the Theory of Diminishing Returns (TODR).

TODR posits that each cycle should yield lower returns than the previous one. Examining historical data, the first cycle delivered a staggering 531,681% returns, followed by 62,325%, 11,808%, and the most recent 2,051%. If Bitcoin were to break the Theory of Diminishing Returns, it would need to achieve a little over 2,051% during the current cycle. 

“That suggests that we can be looking at a Cycle peak above $330,000! Of course, if that happens, it would mean that Bitcoin will also break above its historic Parabolic Growth Channel, which can be considered another narrative destruction,” he said. 

Following its recent all-time high, Bitcoin has corrected below the $70,000 mark. However, it maintains trading above the critical $65,000 support zone, which analysts deem crucial for sustained gains.

Bitcoin faces market exhaustion 

Despite this correction, the overall sentiment towards the asset remains bullish, especially with the upcoming halving anticipated to boost the crypto market significantly. 

However, concerns about potential market exhaustion have surfaced, with data from Santiment indicating that discussions about Bitcoin remain “fairly healthy.”

“The percentage of discussions related to $BTC vs. other assets is at a fairly healthy 27.5% right now, but not nearly at the euphoric levels shown when $60K was being eclipsed just 9 days ago… and this is a GOOD thing. #FOMO and greed are typically top signals,” Santiment said. 

Bitcoin social dominance chart. Source: Santiment

As of the current press time, Bitcoin is priced at $68,481, boasting weekly gains of approximately 10%.

Disclaimer: The content on this site should not be considered investment advice. Investing is speculative. When investing, your capital is at risk.

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