After a years-long wait, Michael Burry’s massive bet on a selection of Chinese technology companies is paying off big in 2025.
As Finbold previously reported, ‘The Big Short’ investor had already made more than $10 million on his three biggest stock positions by March 12.
As of March 17, it appears that Burry – as well as any other investor who has chosen to follow him – can hope for another bonanza from the famous short trader’s biggest portfolio position, Alibaba (NYSE: BABA).
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Why BABA stock is set for an 18% rally
Specifically, the famous on-chain expert Ali Martinez took a break from analyzing cryptocurrencies and opined that BABA shares are poised for an 18% breakout.
The estimate is based on the fact that Alibaba stock appears to have formed a bullish chart pattern known as an ascending triangle.
On the other hand, the price forecast is in line with typical breakout targets – though it is on the conservative side – as it nearly equals the percentage change expected, given the vertical distance between the upper and lower bounds of the triangle.
Alibaba shares are driven by strong bullish momentum
With BABA stock witnessing a high $141.10 Friday closing price, an 18% rally would take it to $166.50. Even if a rise from the Monday pre-market price of $139.24 – resulted from a 1.32% extended session drop – the target remains high at $164.30.
While such a surge may appear ambitious, it is worth pointing out that Alibaba stock is backed by significant momentum driven by its latest artificial intelligence (AI) release, financial stimuli in China, and a series of technological breakthroughs unveiled by the People’s Republic in 2025.
Indeed, BABA shares are up 66.10% year-to-date (YTD) and have gained $56.16 between the first session of the year and March 14.
How much Michael Burry will make if the forecast is correct
Should Martinez’s price prediction come true, Michael Burry can himself look forward to substantial gains. In his latest 13-filing – the one reporting figures based on December 31, 2024 prices – ‘The Big Short’ investor revealed that his Alibaba position was worth $12.7 million.
Already by Friday’s closing bell – given BABA was changing hands at $141.10 – his stake was worth $21.16 million. Should there be an 18% rally, his Alibaba stock position will surge to $25 million compared to Friday’s close.
Disclaimer: The featured image in this article is for illustrative purposes only and may not accurately reflect the true likeness of the individuals depicted.
