Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) has been on the ascendance on the business and stock market side in an equally impressive measure since late 2022, when the artificial intelligence (AI) boom began in earnest.
NVDA shares have, in the 25 months since the release of the original public version of ChatGPT, skyrocketed 888% to their press time price close to $140, and the firm’s market capitalization grew by a gargantuan $3 trillion.
Still, Nvidia’s rise hasn’t been entirely smooth, and the semiconductor giant’s shares spent much of the year in relative stagnation. Furthermore, the cumulative rally raised a pointed question of whether the upside can be sustained in 2025 or if the AI boom has, in truth, become an AI bubble.
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Can Nvidia stock reach $200 in the new year?
Judging by the recent analyst forecasts for 2025, Nvidia has a chance of reaching $200 in the new year, but such a rally is far from guaranteed.
Though all four prominent rating revisions provided in December were positive, only Cantor Fitzgerald estimated NVDA shares would rally to $200, and Truist predicted an upsurge to $204.
The other two – assigned by Daiwa Securities and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) – were far more conservative, albeit bullish. Indeed, the former upgraded the 12-month price target for Nvidia stock from $125 to $160 and the latter from $166 to $168.
The lack of confidence in Nvidia stock hitting $200 can be explained by a combination of perspective, broader fears for the 2025 stock market, and the pervasive geopolitical tension that could jeopardize critical supply lines.
Why $200 remains an ambitious goal despite Nvidia’s growth
To begin with, if Nvidia achieves the already gargantuan task of hitting a market capitalization of $4 trillion in 2024, its stock would have to change hands at only a moderately higher $164.
Additionally, recent developments – and particularly the Federal Reserve’s upward revision of the inflationary forecast – have reignited fears of an economic slowdown in 2025.
While such a prospect is concerning on its own, it could substantially reduce NVDA’s growth potential when paired with the long-standing dread that the market is a massive bubble and the potential impact of the likely trade war with China and other countries under the second Trump administration.
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