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Can Tesla stock reach $300 as it beats delivery estimates?

Can Tesla stock reach $300 as it beats delivery estimates?
Elmaz Sabovic

Electronic vehicle (EV) analysts, such as Troy Teslike, who specializes in Tesla production and delivery numbers, weren’t optimistic about Tesla’s (NASDAQ: TSLA) highly anticipated delivery and production numbers for the second quarter. 

Notably, Teslike expected a miss on estimates and a further decrease quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year.

However, Tesla managed to deliver better-than-expected delivery numbers, as it revealed on July 2 that it had delivered approximately 444,000 vehicles from April to June, beating expectations of 439,000.

In turn, the market quickly awarded these numbers as TSLA stock added 9.11%, at the time of publication.

TSLA stock 24-hour price chart. Source: Finbold
TSLA stock 24-hour price chart. Source: Finbold

Now, the question arises: as the numbers slowly recover, can TSLA stock regain its previous all-time high and reach the $300 threshold?

Wall Street analysts taking it one step at a time with TSLA stock

The recent delivery numbers and good performance have yet to convince the majority of Wall Street analysts, as the most recent price targets showcase cautious optimism.

In the most recent research note released on July 1, Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard maintained a “buy” rating on Tesla shares. 

Sheppard set a price target of $230, hoping that Tesla would surpass delivery estimates and that the developments by the end of the year would positively influence TSLA stock.

Wedbush analysts observed that Tesla’s growth in China shows signs of improvement, with a “mini rebound” in Q2 potentially enabling the company to meet Wall Street’s estimated 435,000 units. 

While whisper numbers were lower, ranging from 415,000 to 420,000 units, the focus remains on a recovery in the second half of the year, price stabilization, ongoing growth in China, and the highly anticipated Robotaxi Day on August 8. 

The analysts noted that Tesla’s pricing has stabilized recently, as most price cuts are over. Demand in China increased in May and June, and consumers expected no further significant price reductions. Wedbush sees the upcoming Robotaxi Day as a potential catalyst for the stock and reiterates an “outperform” rating with a $275 price target.

Some analysts see opportunity, but not in TSLA stock

Wells Fargo added Tesla to its Q3 Tactical Ideas List on July 1, indicating potential for a near-term decline in the stock. The firm maintains an “underweight” rating, citing expectations of declining delivery growth due to lower demand and reduced returns on price cuts. 

Analyst Colin Langan and his team forecast a drop in automotive gross margins, excluding credits, as further price reductions and lower volumes are anticipated. Their FY24 delivery estimate for Tesla is approximately 1.55 million units, representing a 14% year-over-year decline and 13% below consensus estimates. 

Concerns persist about moderating trends in critical regions (U.S., EU, China), limited volume growth levers, and a flat EV adoption rate in the U.S. and EU. Additionally, aggressive competition in China and skepticism about the feasibility of Tesla’s vision-only Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology contribute to the cautious outlook. 

Despite recent gains in Tesla shares following robust delivery reports from Chinese EV companies, Wells Fargo emphasizes that Tesla’s current valuation (82X PE) is high compared to its peers (35X PE) and highlights a lower consensus for three-year EPS growth.

Overall, the sentiment on Wall Street is that TSLA stock is making a comeback, but the $300 target may prove elusive for the time being.

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