Prediction markets are assigning extremely slim odds to meme cryptocurrency Dogecoin (DOGE) reaching a new all-time high before the end of 2025.
Traders are placing the probability at less than 1%, a steep decline of 18%, marking one of the lowest readings recorded this year, according to data retrieved by Finbold from Polymarket on December 10.
The contract, which tracks whether Dogecoin will set a new record high before December 31, 2025, has accumulated more than $1.12 million in trading volume.
Notably, expectations were considerably higher earlier in the year, with probabilities fluctuating between 5% and 20%. Sentiment began cooling sharply in late October, followed by a persistent downward drift throughout November and early December, bringing the market-implied odds to near zero as of the latest reading.
The trend reflects mounting skepticism over Dogecoin’s ability to reclaim its 2021 peak of around $0.73 within the current market cycle. Notably, the meme token has been weighed down by broader market sentiment.
The shift in odds comes as Dogecoin navigates mixed signals that could shape its price. Institutional interest has risen with the launch of the first Dogecoin ETFs, though trading activity remains limited.
At the same time, whale accumulation and stronger on-chain activity point to renewed engagement, while early signs of new merchant adoption and ongoing technical development have added pockets of optimism.
These tailwinds, however, are offset by selling from large holders, uneven ETF momentum, and broader macro uncertainty.
Dogecoin price analysis
By press time, Dogecoin was valued at $0.15, having gained almost 5% in the past 24 hours. However, on the weekly timeline, DOGE is down 2%.
From a technical perspective, Dogecoin’s current price sits well below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $0.1655 and even further under the 200-day SMA at $0.2051, signaling a sustained downtrend and potential resistance ahead unless momentum shifts.
This bearish positioning aligns with the neutral 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 47.50, which neither indicates oversold conditions for a rebound nor overbought pressure for further decline, suggesting sideways consolidation in the near term.
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