The economic and foreign policies set in motion by the current U.S. administration have sent shockwaves through the financial markets. Naturally, in these newfound dynamic conditions, many are now speculating as to what the best “Trump trade” could be.
In the recent selloff, tech stocks lost a lot of ground — despite the fact that they are among the equities least exposed to supply chain disruptions on account of tariffs. At the same time, the Buffett indicator, a measure of stock market valuation to GDP, is at an all-time high. However, revenue streams have diversified and become global.
On the other hand, the resurgent risk of inflation and the possibility of a recession could have a knock-on effect on economies outside the United States. To put it simply (and bluntly), there’s quite a lot going on — and navigating these conditions optimally will be no small feat.
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Turning to the opinions and theses of professionals and experts can serve as a good starting point when trying to come up with an approach. One renowned economist recently shared his take with the public — and what he considers the ideal Trump trade might come as a surprise.
Schiff shifts from domestic to foreign equities — bullish on gold and silver
Prominent economist and one of the most noted critics of Bitcoin (BTC) Peter Schiff took to social media platform X to share his views on the ideal Trump trade through a March 18 post.
Schiff, who first gained renown by predicting the crash of 2008, began by noting the strong uptrends at play with gold and silver. He then noted that U.S. stocks are trading lower, while foreign stocks are trading higher. Finally, the economist deemed that selling U.S. equities to purchase foreign stocks, and selling Bitcoin to buy gold constituted the “real” Trump trade.
Gold is climbing higher into record territory, trading at $3,025. Silver is even stronger trading at $34.10. U.S. stocks are lower as foreign stocks are higher. Ironically, the real Trump trades are selling U.S. stocks to buy foreign stocks, and selling Bitcoin to buy gold.
How would have Schiff’s Trump trade performed since the start of the year?
Let’s take a closer look at some of Schiff’s claims. We can divide them into two distinct comparisons — domestic vs foreign equities, and gold (or alternatively, silver) vs Bitcoin.
Since the start of the year, the S&P 500 benchmark index has marked a 4.43% decline.
In the same timeframe, the most comparable indices from China and Europe — the CSI 300 and Stoxx Europe 600, have seen a 4.9% and 8.41% increase, respectively.
Schiff, as we mentioned, is a renowned BTC bear. Although his stance has softened as of late, he still fundamentally considers the leading cryptocurrency to be no better than a meme coin. Since the start of the year, the price of Bitcoin has decreased by 15.19%.
In contrast, the prices of gold and silver — for which we will be using spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as a shorthand, have risen by 15.42% and 17.35%, respectively.
So — let’s put it this way. An investment made into domestic equities and Bitcoin would have accrued a 9.81% loss since the start of the year. On the other hand, an investment split equally between European and Chinese stocks, together with gold and silver, would have netted an 11.52% return.
Does Schiff’s thesis hold water?
To cut to the chase — as is often the case with questions like these, yes and no.
Schiff’s comments regarding how domestic and foreign equities, precious metals, and Bitcoin have performed thus far in 2025 are right on the money.
However, that’s more or less where his insight ends — as his proposed ideal Trump trade more or less amounts to ‘business as usual’. The economist’s recommendations would play out well under the condition that things keep developing in the same direction that they are developing right now — but that’s a huge hypothetical.
For one, the very same market sentiment that ignited the S&P 500’s losing streak isn’t set in stone. Donald Trump has demonstrated a willingness to suspend or delay tariffs — so how exactly the budding trade war will play out remains to be seen.
Featured image via Shutterstock
