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Finance legend Ray Dalio thinks there’s a 40% chance of a civil war in the U.S.

Finance legend Ray Dalio thinks there’s a 40% chance of a civil war in the U.S.
Ana Zirojevic

Amid deepening ideological and political rift in the United States, Ray Dalio, the chief investment officer and founder of Bridgewater Associates, the largest hedge fund in the U.S., and the author of the best-selling book ‘Principles: Life & Work,’ said that the American nation might be looking at a civil war.

As it happens, Dalio voiced his opinion that the U.S. was “on the brink” of an internal conflict, placing the chance of this happening at 35-40%, albeit not as many might imagine it, where people just “grab guns and start shooting,” as he explained in an interview with The Financial Times published on May 16.

Specifically, he predicts the larger possibility of the U.S. fracturing across political and ideological lines as people start moving to states with authorities whose views align with theirs more closely while refusing to abide by the politics of the federal government that they disagree with.

Violent conflict still in cards?

However, the billionaire hasn’t excluded the likelihood of an armed conflict either, as it is difficult to say with certainty “if we will cross over into much more turbulent times” amid the upcoming U.S. elections and existential risks like artificial intelligence (AI) and climate change.

Indeed, Dalio compared the two presidential candidates on opposite sides of the U.S. political spectrum, the former Republican president Donald Trump and the Democrat incumbent Joe Biden, stressing that the November 2024 election would be a true test for democracy.

Commenting on Trump’s future policies, should he win the presidential bid, the finance legend opined that:

“Trump will follow more rightist, nationalistic, isolationist, protectionist, non-regulatory policies – and more aggressive policies to fight enemies internally and externally, including political enemies.”

On the other hand, Biden, “and even more so the Democratic party without Biden, will be more the opposite, though they too will play political hardball,” Dalio said, without revealing to which side of the political spectrum he was personally leaning.

Taylor Swift for President

In fact, he half-joked that he would vote for popular singer Taylor Swift to become the next U.S. President, sharing the observations from her concert he attended in Singapore in March:

“I saw how she brought people of all sorts – and many nationalities – together. It felt like it would have been impossible to fight. (…) I say this partly as a joke, but if she ran for president and would listen to great advisers, I’d consider supporting her.”

As a reminder, Ray Dalio has recently also shared a series of tips for different stages in life, namely people in their 20s and 30s as they mature and try to balance their life and career, and those in 40s and 50s navigating the midlife crisis, as Finbold reported on March 23.

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