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Gold price outlook for May 2024

Gold price outlook for May 2024
Aneena Alex

As May 2024 approaches, the gold market finds itself at a critical juncture, influenced by a combination of geopolitical stability, key economic data, and expectations surrounding monetary policies. 

The metal’s price dynamics this month are expected to be shaped by several key factors, suggesting a predominantly bullish outlook, albeit with potential headwinds.

Gold began the week on a downward trend, primarily due to eased geopolitical tensions and the aftermath of significant gains fueled by safe-haven demands. The price experienced a sharp 2.7% drop, reaching a low near $2,290, before paring losses. This recovery was supported by a weakening US Dollar amid disappointing PMI data, which indicated a slowdown in private sector growth and easing input inflation.

XAUUSD 1 month chart. Source.TradingView

The S&P Global Composite PMI dropped to 50.9 from 52.1, signaling a loss of momentum in business activity—a condition that has historically bolstered gold as an investment during uncertain economic times. 

Despite an increase in Durable Goods Orders, the GDP growth rate for Q1 2024, at 1.6%, was below expectations, putting pressure on the USD and aiding gold’s recovery. However, the rise in the core PCE Price Index to 2.8% suggests persistent inflationary pressures, potentially sustaining USD strength and capping gold’s gains, and the upcoming decisions of the Federal Reserve are also pivotal.

Technical analysis and outlook

In an X (formerly Twitter) post on April 23, analysts at Gold Predictor emphasized the importance of corrections in the gold market, presenting them as opportunities for investors.

Similarly, analyst James Bennet highlights technical formations suggesting bullish momentum. He notes an ascending triangle with resistance near $2,330 and the potential for a breakout toward $2,340-$2,350. Support levels are identified at $2,300 and $2,220, which could be strategic points for buyers to accumulate.

XAUUSD analysis. Source.James-Bennett TradingView

Amid the economic and geopolitical narratives, gold has reaffirmed its status as a safe-haven asset, with prices responding to shifts in investor sentiment and economic indicators. The technical outlook remains positive, and the broader economic uncertainty continues to make gold an attractive investment.

For May 2024, the outlook for gold is cautiously optimistic. Investors will need to navigate through mixed economic signals and closely monitor Federal Reserve actions and global economic developments.

The potential for increased volatility is high, and gold may experience significant price movements based on how these factors interact. As always, market participants are advised to stay informed and consider both macroeconomic trends and technical analysis when making investment decisions in the gold market.

Disclaimer: The content on this site should not be considered investment advice. Investing is speculative. When investing, your capital is at risk

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