The earnings season is here, and electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is among notable Wall Street giants under close scrutiny, especially after the company failed to meet analyst estimates for its Q4 2024 deliveries.
TSLA’s share price has shown volatility ahead of the January 29 earnings report but has maintained its valuation above the $400 support level.
At the close of the last trading session, Tesla’s stock price was valued at $406.58, ending the day down about 1%. On a year-to-date basis, the equity is up over 7%.
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Meanwhile, the equity’s momentum from the post-election rally in late 2024 is evident on the yearly chart, where TSLA is up 112%.
Regarding earnings, it’s worth noting that Tesla reached a new milestone in Q4 2024, producing approximately 459,000 vehicles and delivering over 495,000, marking a record performance for the company.
However, the figure was slightly below the 504,770 deliveries analysts had forecasted. Total annual deliveries for 2024 came to 1,789,226, down from 1.81 million in 2023.
Analysts’ consensus estimates forecast Q4 revenue of $27.169 billion, an adjusted net income of $2.697 billion, and earnings per share (EPS) of $0.74.
What next for TSLA stock price after earnings call
Two key scenarios could unfold after Tesla’s Q4 2024 earnings: a beat on estimates or strong 2025 guidance could propel the stock above $400, stabilizing its upward momentum. Conversely, a miss on earnings, revenue, or muted guidance could trigger increased volatility and pressure on the share price.
Furthermore, the EV maker’s next earnings report comes at a critical technical juncture, as charting platform TrendSpider highlighted in a January 25 post on X.
After a remarkable recovery from early 2023 lows near $100, the stock sits just above key support, around $400. Momentum is pushing into a resistance zone above $406, an area that previously marked a turning point in 2021 and 2022. A breakout above this level could confirm a support-to-resistance flip, signaling further upside potential.
Tesla’s recent earnings performance adds to the anticipation. The analysis observed that while Q4 2023 posted a strong 113.4% year-over-year EPS growth, the -5.4% dip in Q3 2023 highlights mixed expectations.
A strong beat this week could validate the bullish setup, while disappointing results might see the stock retest to mid-$300 levels.
Meanwhile, an analysis by a trading expert with the pseudonym Mike Investing on January 25 noted that Tesla is poised for a potential rally, echoing past performance ahead of major earnings reports.
The analyst pointed out that the stock’s recent consolidation and technical indicators suggest a breakout could be imminent. Historically, TSLA stock has shown a pattern of sharp rallies before earnings, followed by surges post-report. The current setup mirrors this trend, with the expert speculating the stock could reach $600 by March 2025.
“This earnings rally will lead $TSLA to becoming the most valuable company in the world within the next couple months. $600+ incoming by March,” the expert said.
Some key factors to watch during the earnings report will be the company’s guidance in specific fields, such as artificial intelligence (AI) and full self-driving technology.
Notably, Tesla is seeking to make advances in autonomous driving this year with anticipation of friendlier regulation under Donald Trump, who has established close ties with CEO Elon Musk.
AI predicts TSLA stock price post-earning
To determine Tesla’s price action in the short term, Finbold consulted its AI tool to analyze how the stock might perform on January 31, two days after the results are released.
The tool, leveraging several AI models, suggested that TSLA is poised for potential gains, with an average price forecast of $429.55, reflecting a possible 5.65% increase.
OpenAI’s ChatGPT-4o estimates the stock could reach $435.60, a 6.99% increase, citing Tesla’s strong upward momentum and the absence of bearish patterns like a death cross.
Meanwhile, Claude 3 Opus offered a more bullish projection of $443.21, marking a 9.01% increase. This forecast emphasized Tesla’s position above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages (MA), indicative of a strong and sustained bullish trend.
Other models, such as ChatGPT-4o Mini and Grok 2 Vision, provided slightly more conservative projections, estimating a rise to $420, a 3.55% increase. They highlighted Tesla’s stabilizing momentum and ongoing growth in the electric vehicle sector as key factors driving their forecasts.
Wall Street outlook on Tesla stock
On the other hand, Wall Street analysts are issuing mixed outlooks on Tesla’s stock price. For instance, on January 21, Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) reaffirmed its ‘Overweight’ rating on Tesla with a price target of $430. The firm highlighted the EV giant’s potential to lead the shift toward intelligent, AI-driven manufacturing in the U.S., addressing gaps in domestic manufacturing and supply chain security.
Similarly, Cathie Wood, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Ark Investment Management, has maintained that Tesla’s role in real-world AI applications will push the stock to surpass $2,000 by 2030.
However, not all analysts are bullish, especially after the firm missed out on Q4 delivery estimates. As reported by Finbold, Gordon Johnson warned of a potential Tesla ‘bloodbath,’ noting that the delivery miss was a hint of what to expect once earnings are released. Johnson has long maintained that Tesla is overvalued.
The same overvaluation concerns have also been raised by UBS expert Joseph Spak. Given that Tesla’s price-to-earnings ratio currently stands at 211.79, the analyst believes the stock might be pricing in the impact of AI and autonomous driving, even though the company has no major tangible products in this space yet.
Featured image via Shutterstock
