A brand-new Polymarket cryptocurrency wallet made a large-scale bet early on August 24 that the highly anticipated CLARITY Act will not pass before the end of 2026.
Specifically, the user known as VelvetNova27 bet $818,130 that the legislation will not arrive in the U.S. before December 31. The position was established just before 3 AM EST – or at 07:49 UTC – and the odds for ‘no’ at entry stood at 77%, per the data Finbold retrieved from Predictbook on Monday morning.
Furthermore, the latest changes in the odds regarding the CLARITY Act mean the bet is already up by $82,078, though the situation has more than four months left to change.
What’s been going on with the crypto CLARITY Act in 2026?
Elsewhere, the CLARITY Act – a proposed U.S. federal bill designed to create a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets – has, so far, been as controversial as it has been highly anticipated.
Specifically, it has existed in various forms since before 2026 started, and the version from January triggered a clash between some of the most prominent names in the cryptocurrency industry.
Indeed, at the time, Cardano’s (ADA) Charles Hoskinson was generally critical of the legislation and of Ripple’s Brad Garlinghouse and Coinbase’s (NASDAQ: COIN) Brian Armstrong – two notable executives who backed the Act.
A more recent version led to less controversy, though not to less disappointment, as the expected vote ahead of the August recess failed to materialize.
Why odds of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 are plummeting
The changing circumstances surrounding the CLARITY Act are also visible on Polymarket, as the odds of it getting passed in 2026 hit highs above 80% in February and have been on a decisive decline since May.
Additionally, the August 24 low of 14% can, arguably, be attributed to the fears that, with the failure to vote ahead of the recess, midterm elections could postpone the decision indefinitely.
Finally, another contributing factor might be that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chair Michael Selig pledged to move fast to provide clarity to the industry should Congress fail to act decisively, thus potentially decreasing pressure on the legislators.
Featured image via Shutterstock
