Finbold asked o1 for an S&P 500 index prediction as OpenAI launches its most advanced artificial intelligence (AI) model. Deemed a “PhD-level” AI, the tool can provide thoughtful insights into the stock and finance markets, assisting investors in decision-making.
Previously, we asked o1 for gold, Bitcoin (BTC), and Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) price prediction, testing the AI’s capacities. As published, OpenAI’s model forecasted that gold could reach $3,200, BTC would trade at $90,000, and NVDA stock would grow from here.
In summary, Open AI’s o1 provided three scenarios for the S&P 500 index (SPX) for the end of 2024. First, a bullish scenario, forecasting the leading stock index in a range between 6,700 and 6,800, up 19% to 21% from its current state.
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A neutral prediction keeps the S&P 500 between 5,500 and 5,800, floating between -2% and +3% results. Finally, the bearish scenario involves a recession, with the SPX heading to 4,500 and 4,800 by the year-end.
OpenAI’s o1 S&P 500 index prediction for the end of 2024. Source: NanoGPT / Finbold
S&P 500 index and ETF price analysis
The S&P 500 currently marks 5,626 points, close to its all-time high at 5,669, up 25% year-over-year.
Notably, investors and traders can speculate on the S&P 500 index through the popular exchange-traded fund (ETF) SPY. Currently trading at 562.01, the investment vehicle closed Friday up 0.52% intraday.
On that note, a recent study by Bespoke Investment Group, which we reported at Finbold, shows that after-hours trades outperformed intraday operations with the S&P 500 ETF. This, The Kobeissi Letter explained, is due to how companies release their earnings.
“Companies’ earnings releases and subsequent conference calls almost always occur outside of regular trading hours and lead to material stock price movements. After-hours trading is more important than ever.”
– The Kobeissi Letter
Looking forward, analysts have weighed in on the S&P 500 future performance, considering fundamental aspects like macroeconomics. In particular, Chris Pulver believes stocks could perform well this week amid the expected Federal Reserve interest rate cut.
OpenAI’s o1 fundamental analysis for the S&P 500 index prediction
Interestingly, OpenAI’s o1 agrees that an upcoming Federal Reserve rate cut could stimulate the economy, triggering the bullish scenario. This, however, would only happen if the cuts do not ignite higher inflation and if corporate earnings continue to grow.
On the other hand, geopolitical issues can harm investors’ confidence – already threatened by recession fears that can materialize, o1 said. Moreover, the AI considers the possibility of increased volatility from monetary policy shifts, creating “unintended consequences.”
In the meantime, market consolidation amid balanced positive and negative fundamental factors would lead to the forecasted neutral prediction.
In conclusion, the S&P 500’s level at the end of 2024 will be the result of complex interactions between economic indicators, monetary policies, geopolitical events, and investor sentiment. Each scenario outlined presents a plausible pathway the market could follow, but actual results may vary.
Disclaimer: The content on this site should not be considered investment advice. Investing is speculative. When investing, your capital is at risk.
