The chances of the Clarity Act – a proposed U.S. federal regulation aimed at legalizing crypto assets – getting signed into law before the end of 2026 have crashed to a multi-month low on Polymarket as of April 23.
Polymarket traders slashed the Clarity Act’s 2026 passage odds by 21 points in five days, from 64% on April 18 to 43% at press time. During the past 24 hours, the odds of the digital assets market structure bill passing by the end of this year fell by 22%, marking a sharp breakdown in Polymarket traders’ expectations.
The last time the odds on this contract dropped to such levels was in the week of January 19, 2026. During this period, the likelihood of the Clarity Act getting enacted in 2026 bottomed at 40% before rallying in the subsequent weeks to a peak of 82% by February 20. Ever since, the probability has oscillated around 60%, as Finbold analyzed, before capitulating this week.
Why did Polymarket traders slash the chances of the Clarity Act passing in 2026?
The main reason Polymarket traders are less optimistic about the Clarity Act passing this year is a recent delay in the scheduled Senate markup. Earlier this week, Thom Tillis, a Republican Senator from North Carolina, who is leading a compromise between banks and crypto firms, said he does not expect the markup on this bill to take place in April as scheduled.
As such, Tillis stated that the Senate Committee could undertake the reading in mid-May, which aligns with a prediction from Brad Garlinghouse, CEO of Ripple Labs. He added that the delay will further harmonize the contentious issues in the bill, especially on the yield of stablecoins.
“It is very important to me not to accelerate things, to hear everybody, and give them a rational basis for what we do accept,” Tillis stated.
With the Senate’s August recess approaching, Polymarket traders now see fewer chances of the Clarity Act advancing to President Donald Trump’s desk before December 31.
