Though Bitcoin’s (BTC) journey between December 4 and December 6 proved something of a round trip, the temporary surge toward $104,000 appears to have turned investors – and gamblers – decisively bullish.
Specifically, the community active on the Kalshi prediction market – one of the two that rose to fame ahead of the 2024 U.S. presidential election – appears confident that BTC will hit a new all-time high (ATH) in the remaining weeks of the year.
Specifically, the platform is, at press time on December 6, forecasting Bitcoin will stand at a high $127,000 on New Year’s Eve.
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Can Bitcoin reach $127,000 before the end of 2024?
Though the target might appear so lofty that it is out of reach, it is worth pointing out that it would represent a 29.28% rise from the press time price of $98,235 and that the world’s premier cryptocurrency rocketed 31.96% in the last 30 days. If December 5 highs are taken as an endpoint, Bitcoin’s total 30-day upswing amounted to 48.43%, making 29.28% more plausible.
While the raw figures certainly paint BTC’s rise to $127,000 as plausible, the coin’s historical performance demonstrates why the likelihood of the move remains doubtful.
Specifically, the cryptocurrency has been following a pattern of rallies followed by corrections that are themselves followed by a series of retestings of recent highs. So far, this pattern has mostly led to protracted periods of sideways trading with periodic and temporary downward shocks.
Why Bitcoin might trade sideways by the start of 2025
For example, after hitting $73,000 in March, Bitcoin quickly corrected toward $60,000 before finding its footing in the volatile range between $60,000 and $70,000. Furthermore, BTC remained in this range until November, with the most significant shifts coming when the stable levels changed downward from about $67,000 to $63,000.
While more recent trading has been more dynamic, this behavior can also be seen in the last 30 days. The coin rapidly rocketed toward $99,000 after November 6 but sustained a strong uptrend for about two weeks before finding a new center of gravity just above $95,000.
It is possible but not confirmed at press time that this stable footing shifted upward and closer to $98,000.
BTC technical analysis
Technical analysis (TA) similarly demonstrates the prevalent uncertainty. Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) stands just above 64, meaning the cryptocurrency is neither particularly ‘overbought’ nor ‘oversold.’ Still, with the ‘overbought’ zone beginning at 70, it is evident why the move above $100,000 proved brief.
Finally, the watershed moment for Bitcoin in December could come soon. Should BTC break above its nearest resistance levels just above $102,000 – and particularly should it sustain the price – another strong rally would become highly likely. Additionally, a breach of the more distant resistance at $111,000 would significantly bolster the case for a rise to $127,000.
It is also worth pointing out that the bullish case is further bolstered by the holidays at the end of the month since the decrease in volume could lead to greater price swings.
Simultaneously, a significant drop is unlikely as Bitcoin has, so far, successfully held above the nearest support near $92,000, indicating a correction down toward $86,000 is improbable, though not impossible, in 2024.
BTC price today
Whatever Bitcoin’s final 2024 price ends up being, the cryptocurrency has done remarkably well since the year started. For example, even if the 4.11% 24-hour drop is included, BTC remains 1.46% in the green in the last 7 days.
Additionally, zooming out to the year-to-date (YTD) chart demonstrates why the memes depicting joy over Bitcoin reaching a certain price on one day and then despair 24 hours later once it falls to the exact same value have become so popular. Indeed, BTC is 130.02% in the green in 2024.
Featured image via Shutterstock
