With less than 16 months left until the next presidential election in the United States, the probability of a recession in 2024 is the highest in decades, but historical chart patterns seem to indicate that Bitcoin (BTC) could be preparing for a possible all-time high (ATH).
As it happens, the recession probability in the US for 2024 based on the 10-year/3-month term spread is at its highest level since the early 1980s, according to the historical trend analysis by the finance monitoring platform Game of Trades shared on July 12.
Bitcoin versus recession
At the same time, Bitcoin, which many consider a safe haven against recession, has consistently demonstrated the beginning of a bull run in the 22 months before the US presidential election and has recently entered the pre-run phase, according to the observations made by cryptocurrency market analyst Trader Tardigrade in a tweet shared on July 13.
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Indeed, Bitcoin’s relative strength indicator (RSI) has emerged from the zero line on the two-week chart, indicating the beginning of the bull market, mimicking the trend from 2016, as the cryptocurrency expert noted earlier in a macroeconomic chart pattern analysis tweeted on July 12.
Furthermore, the crypto specialist predicts that Bitcoin will continue the run after the election and reach a new ATH, as it did in 2012, when Democratic candidate Barack Obama won, then in 2016, after the victory of Republican Donald Trump, and finally in 2020, with Democrat Joe Biden becoming the current president of the US.
BTC price analysis
Meanwhile, at press time, Bitcoin was changing hands at the price of $30,484, recording a 0.79% decline on the day and dropping 2.11% across the previous week but still hanging onto the 16.33% gain it accumulated during the past month, as per the latest data retrieved on July 13.
All things considered, the flagship decentralized finance (DeFi) asset has a strong chance of improving its value, especially if the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) finally approves the first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).
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