Solana (SOL) has staged an impressive recovery, rallying 6% on March 19 to trade above $134, mirroring gains across the broader cryptocurrency and stock markets. Despite recent volatility, indicators suggest there could be more upside ahead for SOL.
The latest rally was fueled by optimism surrounding the US Federal Reserve’s policy decision. As expected, the Fed kept interest rates steady at 4.5%, while the market priced in a softer economic outlook alongside persistent inflation pressures projected for 2025.
This favorable macro environment has reignited appetite for risk assets, benefiting cryptocurrencies like Solana.
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At press time, Solana is changing hands at $130.82, with a 6% gain over the past week, although it remains down over 20% on the month.
Solana on-chain data signals bullish momentum
Beyond the recent price movement, Solana’s on-chain data continues to highlight a bullish undercurrent. Several Solana-based decentralized applications remain among the top fee generators in the sector, with platforms like Pump.fun, Jupiter, Meteora, and Jito (JTO) ranked among the top 12 in fees, a sign of the network’s active ecosystem.
However, the broader picture reflects some short-term headwinds. Solana’s network revenue has dropped sharply, falling 93% since its January peak, while transaction fees have plunged 83% over the past month.
Decentralized exchange (DEX) volumes have also fallen significantly, from $35.9 billion on January 21 to $979.5 million as of March 15, marking the lowest levels since October 2023. Moreover, Pump.fun’s daily volume has also plummeted by 70%.
Derivatives data signals bullish positioning
In the derivatives market, Solana continues to attract bullish bets. Trading volume surged by nearly 79% to $8.56 billion, while open interest rose 2.17% to $3.87 billion, signaling growing anticipation in further price gains.
Notably, the long/short ratios on major exchanges like Binance at 2.79 and OKX at 2.64 heavily favor long positions, with Binance’s top trader long/short ratio standing at 3.76.
Although options volume dipped slightly, the 11% increase in options open interest indicates continued investor appetite for leveraged bets on SOL’s price trajectory.
Solana futures ETFs launch
Another key catalyst driving optimism is the launch of the first-ever ETFs tracking Solana futures, marking a significant step toward institutional adoption.
Asset manager Volatility Shares is set to introduce two ETFs, Volatility Shares Solana ETF (SOLZ) and Volatility Shares 2X Solana ETF (SOLT) scheduled to begin trading on March 20.
While a spot Solana ETF has yet to secure approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), these futures ETFs highlight growing institutional interest.
According to Bloomberg Intelligence analysts, there is now a 75% probability of a spot Solana ETF approval this year, a move that could unlock significant institutional capital and propel Solana’s market cap toward the $200 billion mark.
That being said, with institutional interest building and macro conditions turning favorable, Solana appears well-positioned to extend its recovery and potentially retest key resistance levels in the near term.
Featured image via Shutterstock
