A Wall Street analyst is projecting that the benchmark S&P 500 index could climb as high as 9,000 by the end of 2026 under a bullish artificial intelligence-driven scenario.
The outlook comes from Julian Emanuel, who set a base-case target of 7,750 for the index by year-end 2026.
At the same time, the analyst assigned a 30% probability to a more aggressive rally that would push the S&P 500 to 9,000. The target would imply an increase of about 20% from the index’s last closing value of 7,408.
The upside scenario is expected to be fueled primarily by AI-led gains across technology, communication services, and consumer discretionary stocks.
According to the strategist, the intersection of rapid technological transformation and shifting geopolitical dynamics is creating a much wider range of possible market outcomes than investors typically anticipate.
Emanuel compared the current environment to major economic and technological shifts seen during the 1920s and the late-1990s technology boom.
The analyst argued that post-pandemic fiscal stimulus, strong money supply growth, and rising AI-driven productivity could reshape the economy through the rest of the decade.
Evercore ISI expects productivity growth to approach 3% by decade-end as AI adoption expands across industries.
Investment options
Meanwhile, the firm recommended long-dated options tied to the “AI Class of 2026” and exposure to the Invesco QQQ Trust, citing significant upside potential in AI-related stocks.
It also advised hedging near-term volatility linked to oil prices and interest rates through protective positions on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust.
Despite its bullish outlook, Evercore cautioned that AI models still face major limitations, noting that large language models often produce consensus-driven responses that may underestimate extreme risks.
He also warned that prediction markets can reflect investor sentiment rather than accurately forecasting uncertain long-term outcomes, adding that durable value in the AI era is more likely to come from specialized expertise and ownership of complete business workflows.
More bullish S&P 500 targets
Separately, RBC Capital Markets projected the S&P 500 will reach 7,900 over the next 12 months, implying roughly 7.7% upside from current levels.
According to Lori Calvasina, any near-term pullback is likely to remain within the 5% to 10% range, while a deeper correction of 14% to 20% is considered unlikely unless recession risks re-emerge.
Calvasina described the expected declines as “garden-variety” corrections rather than the beginning of a broader bear market.
RBC’s outlook is based on a split-growth environment in which AI-driven earnings strength continues to support parts of the market even as other sectors face slower growth conditions.
The firm said risks remain tied to inflation, interest rate policy, and geopolitical shocks, but it continues to favor U.S. equities and growth stocks benefiting from ongoing AI-related investment and productivity gains.
