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We asked ChatGPT what will be Bitcoin price if Israel-Iran conflict escalates

We asked ChatGPT what will be Bitcoin price if Israel-Iran conflict escalates

The launching of a retaliatory attack by Iran against Israel on Saturday, April 13, has had a substantial impact on the value of numerous assets as it increased the danger for some of the crucial supply routes such as the Hormuz Strait, and reignited worries that the current war in the region could expand to involve other nations.

One of the assets that saw the fastest and the most violent reaction as the air assault began was the world’s premier cryptocurrencyBitcoin (BTC) – a somewhat surprising development considering BTC’s reputation as ‘digital gold.’

Despite the initial shock that saw the coin fall by about $6,000 within minutes, it quickly recovered much of the value lost and rose to approximately $66,000 by Monday, April 15.

Given the recent events – and asset reactions – and the established fears that a war between the Islamic Republic and Israel, in all likelihood also involving the U.S., is more likely than it has been in decades, Finbold decided to consult ChatGPT’s most advanced model on how Bitcoin might react to such a crisis.

ChatGPT predicts BTC price in case of an Israel-Iran war

When assuming a very grim scenario in which Saturday’s attack was a herald of imminent war, OpenAI’s flagship artificial intelligence (AI) platform – ChatGPT – assessed that Bitcoin is likely to initially collapse in value, probably dropping to around $60,000.

In the AI’s scenario, such a drop would only be the immediate reaction but, as equities and other assets are likely to be hit even harder in such a crisis, Bitcoin would be likely to quickly regain ground and its footing as ‘digital gold.’

ChatGPT outlines the likely sequence in case the crisis expands. Source: Finbold and ChatGPT

Following this, ChatGPT considers it probable that an initial drop would be followed by a rally as investors seek safety and that Bitcoin would soon rise to approximately $75,000 setting a new all-time high (ATH).

ChatGPT makes the first scenario price prediction. Source: Finbold and ChatGPT

The sequence of events that would see the ultimate escalation come only after a series of other, smaller escalations is much the same in ChatGPT’s assessment.

Under such circumstances, however, the Ai foresees both a bigger initial drop – as low as $55,000 – and a bigger subsequent upside – up to $80,000.

ChatGPT makes the second scenario price prediction. Source: Finbold and ChatGPT

Bitcoin price chart

While it remains unclear what an undesirable war-driven rally – or bloodbath – could look like, the fact remains that Bitcoin has risen substantially in recent months.

Its 52-week performance, which saw a 118.46% rise, demonstrates the protracted nature of the rise that started last October, while the year-to-date (YTD) chart – on which BTC is up 55.65% – shows the coin’s 2024 strength.

BTC YTD price chart. Source: Finbold

More recent performance, however, was marked by sideways trading and volatility as Bitcoin has failed to stay close to or above the latest ATH of $73,000.

Indeed, BTC has been hit hard both by the CPI print last week, and the Saturday attack and is 4.69% in the red on the 30-day chart. The cryptocurrency also declined 6.21% in the last 5 days and Bitcoin price today stands at $66,775 after a 4.25% 24-hour rise.

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