Elon Musk’s electric vehicle (EV) maker, Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA), has always been a contentious investment.
On the one hand, TSLA is arguably the most recognizable name in the industry that is widely expected to become one of the biggest in the coming years and decades amidst the ongoing green transformation
On the other, many have been pointing out for years that Tesla is a car company and not a big tech firm and that it should be valued as one, with at least one analyst making a shockingly low 2025 Tesla stock prediction for TSLA in 2024 – $23.53.
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The debate appears more relevant in 2024 than ever before as the broad EV market has been on a decline for well over a year, with many even claiming that the bubble has burst by late January, yet February brought an unexpected reprieve, compelling many to again consider buying Tesla stock rather than shorting it.
Tesla’s current stock performance
While Tesla has been struggling in terms of stock market performance in the last 52 weeks – it declined 2.91% – and particularly in the last 6 months – having fallen 16.37% in the time frame.
Still, while the company is overall down compared to its share value one year ago, Tesla stock graph shows periods of significant growth along with periods of decline in stark contrast to many of TSLA’s competitors.
The latest 30 days of trading have, however, sent Elon Musk’s EV maker 4.61% into the green, with the uptrend seemingly stabilizing in the last full market week.
The latest full day – Tuesday, February 27 – brought the uptrend to a halt, at least for the time being, as Tesla shares closed 0.17% in the green at $199.73.
Still, the rally is not yet large enough to negate TSLA stock’s 2024 decline, and the EV maker remains 19.60% down year-to-date (YTD).
It remains to be seen whether the recent uptick represents the end of a value buying opportunity for Tesla shares or if it is a deep breath before the plunge.
Why is Tesla stock going up?
While much has been said about the slowdown in demand that the EV industry has been facing – a slowdown significant enough that certain traditional vehicle makers like Ford (NYSE: F) have scaled down production, and ambitious big tech companies like Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) have reportedly scrapped their automotive plans – the fact remains that Tesla has been offering strong delivery figures despite the tough year.
In fact, TSLA’s deliveries report for the entire 2023 showcased a strong growth in production, and the firm shipped as many as 1.8 million vehicles during the year – 500,000 more than in 2022 – indicating that there is a lot of room to grow for the company, despite the significant headwinds.
The broader EV market has also seen two significant rallies starting in late January. In the U.S., Lucid (NASDAQ: LCID) led an industry resurgence after it announced several crucial partnerships.
Though the Saudi-owned company is back in the red, Tesla managed to continue riding the rally.
The recent performance of the Chinese EV market could also be a factor – if looked at as an indicator for what may come to the global electric vehicle industry – as most of its notable companies like BYD (SHE: 002594), Xpeng Inc (NYSE: XPEV) rose approximately 5% in the last 30 days while Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) surged as much as 60% in February alone.
Tesla stock price predictions for 2030
What the current “EV winter” brought to light more than anything else is just how bullish most experts are when it comes to the industry’s long-term prospects.
This is most evident when one looks at the 12-month price targets for companies that have faced significantly more serious issues than Tesla in recent months – Nio (NYSE: NIO) with a forecast 70% upside and Lucid with 30%.
In this relatively short time frame, the forecasts for Elon Musk’s EV maker are also cautiously optimistic, with TSLA stock’s average target forecasting a 9.52% upside – which becomes even more notable when the effects of the extremely bearish $23 forecast on the average figure are taken into account.
Given the ratings for this relative short term, it hardly comes as a surprise that the answers to the question of what Tesla stock will be worth in 2030 are, generally, rather bullish.
Late in January, and despite many exclaiming that the EV bubble has burst at the time, David Barron – a manager of a $1.3 billion investment fund – opined that Tesla Motors is likely to rise 550% in the coming 6 years and set his Tesla stock price target at $1,200 – not accounting a possible Tesla stock split that might happen in so many years.
Baron explained that his very bullish Tesla stock price prediction for 2030 stems from the company’s generally strong brand and a history of success. In this context, the current slowdown can be viewed more as a temporary setback than a harbinger of downturns to come.
Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood is another major Tesla bull, and her prediction for the EV maker’s rise is not only more significant than Baron’s but foresees a quicker surge. In fact, Ark’s 2027 Tesla stock price target stands at an impressive $2,000 per share.
While the figure might appear too high at first glance, Wood has previously been right when she predicted a 1,000% 5-year rise for the company – a prediction that, discounting the actual Tesla stock value effects stock splits have had in the meantime, came true in 2021.
Should you invest in Tesla stock today?
All things considered, right now appears like a decent time to buy TSLA shares, but whether you should buy Tesla stock today will largely depend on your personal risk tolerance and faith in Elon Musk’s EV maker.
While the company has its fair shares of bulls – and bulls that have been right with past predictions – there are many who recommend caution when it comes to Tesla shares.
While the $23 Tesla stock price prediction is on the extreme end, others have loudly proclaimed that they will not come close to the EV company unless it sees an even greater price drop.
Perhaps the most prominent of these is Gurgavin Chandoke – an event-driven, technology-focused trader who frequently shares his opinions and strategies on X – who stated he would not buy Tesla shares unless they fell to approximately $100.
Indeed, while the returns on buying Tesla stock today could become immense if the company’s biggest bulls are even partially correct and there is no clear answer to the question of what Tesla stock will be worth in 2030, risks remain high.
Not only are EVs still considered luxury goods in a market unfavorable for such products due to the inflation and interest rate-driven cost of living crisis, but even in its own playing field, Tesla Motors has been overtaken in terms of deliveries by one of its biggest competitors – China BYD – already last year.
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Disclaimer: The content on this site should not be considered investment advice. Investing is speculative. When investing, your capital is at risk.
