Notably, part of the prevailing consensus among most market participants is that Bitcoin is poised for a rally towards a new all-time high. This optimism is fueled by developments surrounding a potential spot Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) approval and next year’s halving event.
In this case, in a November 17 TradingView post, prominent crypto analyst TradingShot highlighted that Bitcoin is potentially gearing up for a parabolic rally in a matter of weeks as the digital asset enters the pre-and post-halving phase of its market cycle.
In the analysis, TradingShot compared the current market cycle to the 2018-2021 and 2014-2017 cycles, where a nuanced understanding of Bitcoin’s phases has emerged.
The present analysis places Bitcoin in the pre-and post-halving phase, with the fourth halving event expected to occur in April 2024. During this phase, Bitcoin’s price tends to touch or surpass the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, with the 0.382 Fibonacci level acting as a crucial support, excluding exceptional circumstances such as the pandemic crash in early 2020.
Currently, Bitcoin is positioned at the 0.786 Fibonacci level, set at $50,000. According to the TradingShot model, the cryptocurrency is expected to reach this level imminently or within 3-4 months following the upcoming halving event. The analysis also underscores the importance of maintaining support above the 0.382 Fibonacci level of $27,000.
“Once the 0.786 Fib breaks, BTC should test the $69,000 All Time High (ATH) in a matter of weeks, which will be the start of the Parabolic Rally phase. Beyond that, it is a matter of how high the current cycle can extend to in pricing the next ATH,” he said.
Bitcoin’s next target
The analysis also singled out the historical cycles, noting that the 2017 phase peaked at the 2.382 Fibonacci extension, while the 2021 cycle reached the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. At the same time, the analysts highlighted the theory of diminishing returns, where there is a natural expectation that each successive cycle may not surpass the previous one by a significant margin.
With increasing adoption, the analysis suggests a realistic projection of no more than the 1.382 Fibonacci extension, equivalent to slightly over $120,000. A more conservative estimate places a potential worst-case scenario at $100,000.
Crucially, the future trajectory of Bitcoin’s value depends on various fundamental factors, including the evolution of adoption, capital inflow in the event of ETF approval, and other market dynamics. Meanwhile, TradingShot has noted that Bitcoin recently experienced volatility triggered by news surrounding the ETF approval.
It is worth noting Bitcoin’s recent rally was primarily fueled by developments related to ETF approval. In the meantime, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has again delayed approval for a spot ETF. In the latest update, the SEC postponed decisions on approvals for Franklin Templeton’s and Global X’s spot Bitcoin ETF applications.
At the same time, reports on the approval have intensified following indications that the SEC has been engaging with exchanges regarding numerous spot Bitcoin ETF applications. However, it is key to note that nothing has changed despite the speculation around the approval.
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin was valued at $36,359 by press time with daily gains of about 0.20%. On the weekly chart, Bitcoin has plunged by almost 2%.
A review of Bitcoin’s technical analysis suggests that bullish sentiments still dominate the maiden cryptocurrency. A summary of the one-day gauges presented by TradingView aligns with the ‘buy’ sentiment at 11, while moving averages are for ‘strong buy’ at 11. Oscillators are for sale at 2.
At the moment, Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase, with a critical focus on reclaiming the $37,000 spot.
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